CIt was 2012. At the time when the UMP and the PS still reigned as sacred monsters of French politics. At the time, François Bayrou was confined to the role of luxury referee. And that day in May, the Béarnais had decided, a few hours after a lunch with his close guard in the very chic 7e Parisian district, a stone’s throw from the MoDem headquarters, to give a big boost to the left-wing team. “The rest remains the vote for François Hollande, that’s the choice I make,” the centrist leader, in a gray suit in front of an Orange lectern, opened right between the two rounds of the presidential election, in a speech that would infuriate Nicolas Sarkozy.
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Twelve years later, the situation has almost been reversed. It is François Bayrou who arrives in Matignon this December 13 and the left which finds itself in a strategic position to give, or not, a nice gift to Emmanuel Macron’s former Minister of Justice. However, as there is no debt in politics, the latter does not seem, at first glance, really determined to make his task easier at all costs. “It’s not a party,” a socialist collaborator euphemized this afternoon, his head in the internal discussions.
The Insoumis are up in arms
Unsurprisingly, as soon as the appointment of the mayor of Pau to Matignon was confirmed, after a Dantesque morning marked by contradictory rumors, several figures from the most left wing of the New Popular Front (NFP) rushed to send him a series darts. “It’s a new arm of honor against democracy,” reacted Manuel Bompard, the leader of the Insoumis, while Paul Vannier, close to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, took the opportunity to once again push for a possible resignation from the President of the Republic: “Macron only cares about Bayrou. The countdown to his fall is on. »
No socialist will participate in the government but we do not censor a priori.Laurent Baumel
If they do not explicitly speak of censorship in principle, the ecologists have not been tender towards the High Commissioner for Planning either. “It’s no longer politics, it’s bad boulevard theater,” wrote Marine Tondelier. In a bitter press release, the environmental group in the Assembly called, without really believing in it, François Bayrou to take into account “the proposals resulting from the parliamentary debate”. A sound similar to that of the PCF. “We will judge on the evidence but we do not expect François Bayrou to pursue left-wing policies because he is not a left-wing man,” summarizes, bitterly, Cécile Cukierman, the boss of communist senators. We remain in a position which is not aprioristic but not optimistic either. »
The socialist in-between
In reality, it is especially towards the socialists that all eyes are turned. With their 66 seats at the Palais-Bourbon – and provided that the Republican right does not censor either – these alone can allow François Bayrou not to see, like Michel Barnier, his destiny linked to the good graces of the Rally national. However, in recent days, the signals sent were not of unconditional love. Far from it. On BFMTV on Wednesday, Olivier Faure was categorical: François Bayrou, embodying the “continuity” of Macronism, “could not” be Prime Minister. “Bayrou is Barnier bis,” choked up the same day a leading PS deputy, although not known for refusing compromises. The socialist governing bodies had even taken care to recall, as revealed Le Figarothat if one of them entered a “non-left” government, he would be excluded from the party manu militari.
ALSO READ “The trouble begins”: the PS in the trap of the motion of censureThis Friday, the socialists were in the middle of the national office when they learned of the appointment of Béarnais. And, according to several participants, everyone quickly agreed on the course of action: no participation in government, but also no, unlike the Insoumis, a priori censorship. “We do not approve of the appointment of François Bayrou, we perceive it as a form of democratic denial on the part of Emmanuel Macron,” summarizes MP Laurent Baumel at Point. No socialist will participate in the government, but we do not censor a priori. François Bayrou will have to show us his availability for significant changes of course. » A sort of in-between to give ourselves a scent of responsibility in the period of political uncertainty, without melting into the crutches of macronism.
What are the conditions for non-censorship?
In this acrobatic attempt to find a balance, it is nevertheless difficult to know to what degree of flexibility the socialists will be prepared during the negotiations. Among the conditions for possible clemency, they demand in particular that the Prime Minister renounce the use of 49.3. But not only that. “If he doesn’t give us anything in terms of pensions, purchasing power and he announces an immigration law, we will go to censorship,” warns a tenor. The relationship between Béarnais and Marine Le Pen’s troops will also be carefully scrutinized. “With Bayrou, it will be a Macronist government,” believes someone close to Olivier Faure. The question is: “Will it be a Macronist government which will have a preference for the RN or the Republican front?” »
In a press release published this afternoon, the president of the Occitanie region Carole Delga, a notorious opponent of Olivier Faure, seemed a bit more conciliatory, regretting that Emmanuel Macron “refuses to appoint a left-wing Prime Minister”, but calling on forces of the “republican front” to “work in a collective spirit”. On Sud Radio this morning, the mayor of Saint-Ouen Karim Bouamrane went even further, criticizing the position on the exclusion of any socialist who would participate in a government that was not left-wing, even before the appointment of the Prime Minister. “He has no influence in the party,” replies our close friend Olivier Faure. Bayrou can try to hook a local elected official but that is not what will give color to the necessary change of footing. »
ALSO READ Dominique Potier (PS): “Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s strategy does not oblige us in any way” If the PS has remained rather united since the censorship, the central bloc will undoubtedly have an eye on possible internal fissures when the discussions on the red lines are more concrete or, a fortiori, in the event of large-scale poaching. The rose party, fundamentally keen not to appear as the gravedigger of the NFP, will be very attentive to the evolution of the positioning of the ecologists and the communists. “It’s going to be a mess for a few more days,” predicts a strategist who knows the left well.
MoDem the red?
A sign that the new Prime Minister knows that he is navigating in choppy waters, he remained very vague on his political orientations during his handover speech. At most, François Bayrou mentioned his time in National Education, a theme dear to the left, and called for the “reconciliation” of the country.
In recent months, the MoDem had sent some signals to the port side. Without directly opposing the text on pensions, François Bayrou himself estimated afterwards that “another reform was possible”. During the budgetary discussions of Macron’s second term, left-wing deputies and MoDem even found themselves allies of circumstance on certain amendments on taxation. Jean-Paul Mattei, boss of the Orange group until last summer, had even acquired the nickname “insoumattei” on the left for his desire to tax superprofits.
ALSO READ “The Socialist Party is moving forward without a strategy”
To Discover
Kangaroo of the day
Answer
A former member of the MoDem group is quick to qualify: “Bayrou has a social fiber, but we must not forget that his obsession is the debt. And Mattei is a provincial notary who campaigned for Giscardian youth! » Vice-president of the MoDem at the time of the 2012 presidential election, now a supporter of the NFP, the ecologist Jean-Luc Bennahmias adds: “Bayrou is a center-right man, look for the left in the MoDem, it’s not easy! »
When announcing his vote for François Hollande in 2012, the Béarnais warned: “I am not and I will not become a man of the left, I am a man of the center and I intend to remain so. » It remains to define centrism.
