Marine Le Pen, citizens and analysts…

The editorialists told us in recent days that Marine Le Pen had committed hara-kiri by voting for the government's censorship with the LFIsts. An opinion poll carried out after the no-confidence vote shows, on the contrary, that she is widening the gap and would place herself clearly ahead of her adversaries if the presidential election were held on Sunday. Ms Le Pen told Télématin: “I think that politicians and commentators should be careful in their analyzes (…) They must not take their dreams for reality”.

A Fiducial survey / Sud Radio / Figaro Magazine made after the motion of censure, places Marine Le Pen in the first round of the future presidential election, with 36% against Édouard Philippe who would be at 25%; and at 38% ahead of Gabriel Attal at 20%.

Political scientists disavowed

We are still far from 2027 but this survey is enlightening as long as the upheavals and political uncertainties do not lead the President of the Republic to throw in the towel before his time. Although he ruled it out completely recently, that hadn't always been his position.

This poll seems to demonstrate that we must have more trust in the public figures in the running for tomorrow than in analysts and political scientists. It is clear that with her intuition, Marine Le Pen perceived the moods and desires of her electorate better than all those who, in the chamber, built theories and peremptorily concluded that the vote on the motion of censure by the National Rally would make it lose its hard-won respectability and discourage some of its activists. Apparently it is the opposite, without overestimating the obviously very punctual nature of this survey.

Also read, Ivan Rioufol: When Macron sponsors national disunity

It is easy to understand the fairly constant error of political journalists in their approach to the RN. Indeed, with a few exceptions, they are inclined to confuse their desires with reality. They perceive it badly because it makes the great mistake of not complying with their wishes. It is a subtle movement which, appearing not to exclude lucidity and good faith, nevertheless often leads them to put their convictions before the cold observations which should be theirs.

I will be forgiven but the broadcasts where the most relevant analyzes were made on Marine Le Pen, the vote on the motion of censure and its possible consequences, were those of CNews, notably on “Heure des pros”, by Gérard Carreyrou.

Navy satisfied with its “opposition gold medal”

It unfortunately seems inevitable to me that the strange way in which the RN is treated – he was not invited to the Elysee discussions to which Marine Le Pen says she would not have attended: dignity claims to refuse what was not given to him propose ! – will amplify his influence and give him, as his candidate claimed, the opposition’s gold medal. What could be better for a party which, while seeking to normalize itself – sometimes to the point of trivializing itself – finds itself, thanks to the President of the Republic who is no longer a turn away, granted the status of dissident and excluded !

This survey contradicts the analyzes of specialists because citizens mix with their support an infinity of considerations (support for the RN, hostility towards Emmanuel Macron, mediocrity of the other parties, desperate desire for change) which are not understood in their entirety. But it does not guarantee that Marine Le Pen will be elected in 2027.

Also read: Talker #129: Scapegoats or privileged? Dear civil servants…

If it is remarkable tactically and politically during the journey, I continue to think that its limit is to never be so on the big day, arriving at its destination. As if there was something about her that was bothering her, the fear of winning? Not that she doesn't want it, like her father years ago, but the imminence of victory within democratic reach hinders her instead of stimulating her.

In intellectual, judicial, political and media life, I have always felt a certain distrust towards so-called knowledgeable people, qualified experts, learned journalists, all those who claim to teach us what our mind, our sensitivity and our culture have already taught us. It’s not this survey that will cure me…