Rain turns to snow this afternoon as temperatures tumble

Widespread steady rain will turn to snow this afternoon and continue into the evening with a couple inches possible over higher elevations followed by areas of lake effect Thursday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Mild and Rainy to Cold and Snowy

A frontal boundary over the Finger Lakes this morning will slowly press eastward today as low pressure rides north along the front.

Areas of rain and fog this morning are only the start of an active 24 hours or so in the weather.

Rain will increase throughout the region during the morning hours, becoming widespread and steady. Precipitation will persist into the afternoon without letting up.

As low pressure along the front strengthens, it will pull cooler air toward it, causing the front to move eastward. Temperatures across the Finger Lakes will fall steadily through the 40s and into the 30s.

Rain will start to turn to snow as early as 2 or 3 PM for some of the higher elevations in the western Southern Tier. Snow will then spread eastward and northward at increasingly lower and lower elevations.

The last areas to turn over will be along and north of I-90, and there remains some question whether the rain will fully change over before the widespread precipitation ends during the second half of this evening.

The snow will stick in some areas, with elevations above about 1200 feet having a chance for two or three inches to accumulate. Elevations below that will see a coating to an inch or two. The warmest areas along the lakes and in urban centers may not see any accumulation at all.

Winds will be light through the early afternoon but will pick up late in the day. By this evening, wind speeds will be 10-15 mph.

The wind will first turn to the northwest as it starts to pick up, but will then gradually shift to the west and southwest by Thursday morning. By that time, temperatures will be down into the low and mid 20s.

It will not take long after the widespread precipitation ends for some lake effect off Lake Erie to develop.

After some snow showers during the overnight, a small but mature band of snow may be impacting parts of Livingston, Ontario, and northern Seneca counties early Thursday morning. Locally an inch or two may accumulate with some sloppy travel conditions.

Lake effect will continue to wobble around the northern Finger Lakes throughout the daytime hours Thursday, possibly extending all the way into the Syracuse area. The band should retreat westward and weaken by the evening hours.

Outside of this narrow band of snow, the rest of the region will be dry, but cool and windy on Thursday. Wind gusts, still from the southwest, may be as high as 40 mph at times. Afternoon highs will generally stick to the mid and upper 20s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed dec 11 | wed, rain turning to snow late upper 30 | thur, isolated lake effect snow upper 20 | fri, sun and a few clouds mid 20 | sat, sunny with late clouds low 30 | sun, a few rain or snow showers near 40 | mon, clouds, some sun late mid 40 | tues, some late rain showers mid 40 — This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Warm Up

Winds will gradually become more westerly Thursday night, sending the remaining flurries associated with the Lake Effect band south through the region. Outside of the band, some clearing may take place.

This will lead to morning lows Friday well into the 10s. Afternoon highs will struggle to make it to the mid 20s. Winds will be lighter, though, and there should be a good deal of sunshine.

Friday night will again be cold with mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the lower half of the 10s and some single digits will be possible. However, a light south wind will take hold after midnight, likely preventing it from getting quite as cold as it would otherwise.

The southerly winds will warm temperatures steadily on Saturday with highs in the low and possibly mid 30s. There will once again be a good deal of sunshine, though some late clouds will probably work their way in.

Sunday will be warmer, with morning lows in the mid 20s and afternoon highs around 40 degrees.

Some rain or snow showers may slowly make their way into the region but shouldn’t amount to too much.

Highs will be back in the mid 40s Monday and Tuesday. Monday looks cloudy but with a few breaks of sun. Some rain showers are expected later Tuesday.

Temperatures will retreat later next week with a secondary push of cool air in the days leading up to Christmas. Time will tell if we see some snow to accompany the chill to get us a White Christmas.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed dec 11 | wed, rain turning to snow late upper 30 | thur, isolated lake effect snow upper 20 | fri, sun and a few clouds mid 20 | sat, sunny with late clouds low 30 | sun, a few rain or snow showers near 40 | mon, clouds, some sun late mid 40 | tues, some late rain showers mid 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.