Lhe sky is darkening for Viktor Orban. According to the latest survey by the Median Institute, carried out from November 20 to 26 among 1,200 people, his party, Fidesz, only received 36% of voting intentions, a drop of three points in barely three weeks. . Facing him, Peter Magyar's Tisza party consolidates its lead with 47% of voting intentions. An unprecedented gap of eleven points in favor of an opponent as Viktor Orban has dominated the political scene for fourteen years.
Even more worrying for Viktor Orban, the proportion of Hungarians wanting a change of government has jumped ten points in five months. In the total population, Fidesz falls to 27%, losing five points in a few weeks. The Hungarian presidency of the EU and the Budapest summit organized at the Puskas stadium of which it was proud did not reverse the trend. Hungarians judge it today by what they have on their plates…
The financial noose is tightening
Because this political bad patch is fueled by a more difficult economic situation. The record inflation of 2023 (17%) remains high this year (nearly 4%) while the average in the EU fell to 2.3% in November 2024. According to the European Commission, the debt is expected to reach 74.3% of GDP in 2024, driven by lower nominal GDP growth and a high budget deficit: 5.4% of GDP (France does not have too much lessons to be given).
Like seven other countries, Hungary is subject to the excessive deficit procedure. It submitted its medium-term budgetary trajectory on November 4, but it is the only country for which the Commission has not yet issued its assessment. The necessary 6-week period has not expired.
Even more worrying, Hungary risks permanently losing one billion euros of European funds by the end of the year if it does not implement the reforms demanded by Brussels under rule of law conditionality. The Commission considers that Hungary has not yet established satisfactory public procurement rules, nor taken the necessary measures for the effectiveness of the action of the public prosecutor's office, the fight against corruption, the transparency of public interest foundations and avoidance of conflicts of interest. The European Commission is thus maintaining the freezing of more than 16 billion euros intended for the poorest regions and the post-Covid recovery. A financial strangulation which does not make the task of the Orban government easier.
An opponent who hits where it hurts
It is in this landscape that Peter Magyar appears, a former close friend of power who has become its main opponent. The former husband of Justice Minister Judit Varga has adapted his strategy: rather than attacking Orban on the rule of law issues dear to Brussels, he points to the decay of public services and the deterioration in the standard of living of Hungarian.
His speech to the European Parliament in October, delivered in front of Orban himself, bears witness to this. “The minimum wage is 668 euros. In Slovenia, 1,253 euros. In Poland, 1,000 euros, he says as a cruel comparison. In Romania, they have increased salaries by five, and food is 20, 30% cheaper,” he insists. It is doubtful, however, whether Romanians will be delighted, because almost 40% of them have just voted for far-right parties precisely to express their weariness in the face of inflation and the endemic corruption of the socialists in power.
Viktor Orban plays the Donald Trump card
Peter Magyar attacks the failures of the health system. “One in three Hungarians dies before reaching 65e birthday. There is a shortage of 40,000 nurses in the system. There is no detergent, disinfectant, no toilet paper in hospitals,” he says. He also denounces the exodus of young people, a phenomenon which is not unique to Hungary. “One in two young Hungarians aged 18 is thinking about leaving Hungary,” he says, noting that more than a million Hungarians have already left the country to seek a better life in the West.
To Discover
Kangaroo of the day
Answer
“We all know that the end is near and that the seas are raging,” concluded Peter Magyar before the European Parliament. “Whatever your threats, millions of Hungarians, brick by brick, step by step, will take back their homes and we will build a peaceful, European and livable Hungary. »
Requested by The PointViktor Orban's office did not respond to our requests for comment. The Prime Minister still has time to see things coming: the next legislative elections will not take place until April 2026. And above all: he is now counting less on the indulgence of Brussels than on the support of Donald Trump.
