What if the next Prime Minister came neither from the New Popular Front nor from the “common base”, but from the National Rally? Even before the fall of Michel Barnier's government, this Wednesday, December 4, 15% of French people declared themselves in favor of the appointment of Jordan Bardella to Matignon, according to a CSA poll carried out for CNews, Europe 1 and the JDD.
The president of the National Rally and MEP appears to be the name most cited by respondents to take the helm of the government, in the event that the motion of censure is adopted. Notably, no list of potential candidates was submitted to those interviewed, allowing this choice to emerge spontaneously.
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July 8, 2024, to the question “Following the results of the second round of the legislative elections, who do you want as Prime Minister? »the French already placed Jordan Bardella in the lead, with 16% of favorable opinions. Gabriel Attal came in second place with 14%, while François Ruffin collected 7%, expressing a minority but significant wish for a representative of the left in Matignon.
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CSA survey.
© CNEWS, EUROPE 1 AND JDD
Six months later, the preference landscape has evolved. Jordan Bardella maintains a clear lead, with 15% of French people wanting him on rue de Varenne. Former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and Lucie Castets, candidate of the New Popular Front, now share second place, each with 5% of favorable opinions.
In third position, Bruno Retailleau, Minister of the Interior, garnered 4% of the votes. Michel Barnier, current tenant of Matignon, only receives 3% of preferences, equaling former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. Marine Le Pen and François Bayrou bring up the rear with 2% each.
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However, the poll reveals a strong reservation of opinion: 26% of French people say they do not want to comment. Furthermore, 20% cite personalities whose scores remain below 1%, including Sébastien Lecornu, Xavier Bertrand and François Hollande. These figures show a fragmented political landscape, where the figure of the next Prime Minister gives rise to as much debate as indecision.
CSA survey.
© CNEWS, EUROPE 1 AND JDD
In detail, 16% of women are in favor of Jordan Bardella, compared to only 2% for Bernard Cazeneuve and 4% for Lucie Castets. However, a relative majority of 32% of women prefer not to speak out, reflecting notable indecision in this electorate.
Among men, 14% want to see Jordan Bardella at Matignon, while Bernard Cazeneuve collects 9% and Lucie Castets 6%. Men are also less likely to remain undecided, with 19% not saying anything.
Analysis by socio-professional category (CSP) reveals interesting nuances. 16% of the CSP+ favor Jordan Bardella, compared to 15% among the CSP- and 14% among the inactive. On the other hand, the CSP- show the highest rate of indecision, with 31% not saying anything, followed by the inactive (26%) and the CSP+ (22%).
CSA survey.
© CNEWS, EUROPE 1 AND JDD
Analysis by age reveals some disparities. 30% of 18-24 year olds would like Jordan Bardella to be Prime Minister while none are in favor of Bernard Cazeneuve. Only 2% of them want to see Lucie Castets rue de Varenne. Conversely, 37% do not have an opinion. 12% of 25-34 year olds expressed themselves in favor of the president of the RN in Matignon, 1% for the former Minister of the Interior Bernard Cazeneuve and 7% for Lucie Castets.
The favorite of those over 65 is Bernard Cazeneuve, who garners 11% favorable opinions. The Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau obtained 10% of the votes of those surveyed, while Jordan Bardella in Matignon only attracted 9% of those over 65.
CSA survey.
© CNEWS, EUROPE 1 AND JDD
Finally, according to partisan proximity, unsurprisingly, Jordan Bardella is the favorite of 49% of French people most to the right of the political spectrum. It garners 7% favorable opinions for French people who call themselves “right-wing”, 2% for supporters of the presidential bloc and obtains no favorable opinion from Ecologist, Socialist and Insoumis sympathizers.
19% of Socialist Party supporters speak in favor of Bernard Cazeneuve, none for LFI, 4% of Ecologists want to see him in Matignon. 15% of central bloc supporters want to see the former Prime Minister become one again compared to 6% for right-wing French people and only 1% for conservative French people.
Lucie Castets is favored by 28% of Insoumis supporters, 7% of socialist sympathizers and 27% of Environmentalists. On the other hand, it only garners 1% favorable opinion from the presidential bloc and 3% from the so-called right-wing French.
