Par
Maxim T'sjoen
Published on
Dec 4 2024 at 8:27 p.m.
; updated Dec 4 2024 at 8:31 p.m.
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The compromise method advocated by Michel Barnier did not bear fruit. The motion of censure of the New Popular Front, voted with the National Rally, was adopted by the National Assembly this Wednesday, December 4, 2024 with 331 votes in favor.
In fact, the government is censored, and Michel Barnier should, in the coming minutes, hand in his resignation to Emmanuel Macron. This is the first time since 1962. Another consequence of censorship, the Social Security budget for 2025 is rejected.
90 days of discussions
As soon as he arrived in Matignon on September 5, Michel Barnier knew what mess he had gotten himself into: three large blocs in the National Assembly without any possible majority.
To get out of it, the Savoyard praised his method, inherited from the Brexit negotiations. Dialogue, dialogue, nothing but dialogue, “listen, respect for all political forces”, he promised.
“We will act more than talk,” promised the oldest Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic during his handover with Gabriel Attal, 90 days ago.
To govern, he had five areas: standard of living, public service, security, control of immigration and fraternity. But before that, three budgetary texts had to be passed (budget, Social Security budget and end of management bill). Three texts which were already intended for 49.3.
Michel Barnier only activated it once on the PLFSS, Monday December 2. And patatras.
Concessions au RN
It must be said that Prime Minister Barnier's budgetary path of the cross came to an end. Although it was supported by the Senate, the Assembly refused the budget after having largely amended it with NFP measures.
The debates on the Social Security budget could not be concluded. On this specific text, the joint committee bringing together senators and deputies reached an unprecedented agreement, the first in 14 years. But very quickly, Marine Le Pen, president of the RN group in the Assembly, made it known that she would vote for censure with the left if the government did not achieve its demands.
So, to the great dismay of the left, Michel Barnier gave victories to the far right. Reduction on the electricity tax, the delisting of medicines, reform of the AME… He even cited Marine Le Pen in an official press release from Matignon.
Did he think that would be enough? Marine Le Pen, playing the one-upmanship card, also wanted the government to step back on the non-indexation of pensions to inflation. Michel Barnier has chosen not to give in. Marine Le Pen chose to censor it.
Leap into the unknown?
It is clear that with this motion of censure, the country is entering the unknown. Because only one precedent for censorship exists, but it was immediately followed by legislative elections.
Without a budget, without a social security budget, what will happen? The Constitution provides safeguards, but finding a majority in the Assembly on future budgetary texts still remains a real headache.
First equation to solve: which new Prime Minister? Emmanuel Macron has made it known that he wants to act quickly. In the meantime, since the relative victory of the NFP last July, the political world has stagnated in a torrent of uncertainties.
“We must do a lot, and if we cannot do a lot in all areas, we must do well,” said Michel Barnier during his general policy speech. In the end, he did nothing.
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