For great ills, great remedies. After using article 49.3 this Monday to pass his Social Security bill (PLFSS) 2025, the Prime Minister tried again to make a strong appearance on television Tuesday evening. Surprise guest of the “20 Hours” of France 2 and TF1, Michel Barnier came to defend, once again, his finance bill, but also his place in Matignon, while his government is under the influence of two motions of censorship since Tuesday.
On reprieve, the Prime Minister did not hesitate to directly warn the French about the consequences of such “political instability” for the country, but especially for their standard of living. Mentioning several “serious” consequences if the budget was not passed, Michel Barnier affirmed that a tax increase for “nearly 18 million French people” was to be expected. We take stock.
An increase in “mechanical” taxes
The number of 18 million put forward by Michel Barnier is taken from a report by the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) published on October 1. In this article, which questions the consequences of freezing the income tax scale, it is in fact indicated that the latter could lead to an increase in tax for “17.6 million households French”, precisely.
However, it turns out that in the event of a motion of censure and therefore, non-adoption of the budget for the year 2025, this income tax scale would indeed be frozen. Indeed, in the absence of a 2025 budget, it is the 2024 budget which would be tacitly renewed in order to allow the “special law” to take effect. The latter authorizes the government to collect taxes, regardless of inflation. A type of maximum withdrawal, due to not being able to do it on a case by case basis.
A somewhat sensationalist scenario
“We will obviously end up having a finance law,” quips Stéphanie Damarey, associate professor of public law at the University of Lille and specialized in public financial law. “If this government were to fall, another would end up being appointed and with it, a new finance bill would be adopted. » A scenario that France already experienced in 1962 with a popular budget almost two months after the deadline of December 31. But also in 1979, after the Constitutional Council simply censored it.
All government news
“When we end up adopting a finance law in the course of 2025,” explains the professor, “then we will be able to index the income tax scales retroactively. » But how long can France operate without a budget? “If, at the time of taxpayers' tax declaration and the calculation of the withholding tax rate, nothing has yet been recorded, we will start to have a serious problem,” says the specialist. But we are more in political fiction at this stage. »
