Michel Barnier's government falters in the face of censorship

The start of a major political crisis. Monday afternoon, in cathedral silence and in front of a full Hemicycle, Michel Barnier takes the podium of the National Assembly. In a trembling voice, the Prime Minister announces that he is triggering article 49.3 of the Constitution on the Social Security budget.

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« I have reached the end of the dialogue with the political groups while always remaining open and listening »argues the head of government, highlighting the « very multiple evolutions » of the text since the start of the parliamentary debate. His base of 211 deputies — out of 577 — remaining too weak, the Prime Minister decided to resort to the highly contested article 49.3. Which allows a text to be adopted without a vote, unless a motion of censure is adopted.

A new scenario

From her bench, arms crossed, Marine Le Pen watches Michel Barnier announce his ax, while rebels promise to make him « leave the Hemicycle ». By announcing to table a motion of censure and to join that of the New Popular Front (NFP), in response to 49.3, the boss of the deputies of the National Rally (RN) changed the plans of the tenant of Matignon: she made her 41 ministers waver Macronists and Republicans (LR).

What the RN obtained, no one obtained before them. We can give them Notre-Dame de Paris, it won't change anything: they just want the government to fall!

François Patriat, president of the Renaissance group in the Senate

While the President of the Republic is on a state visit to Saudi Arabia, the Prime Minister is caught in the grip of his oppositions in the National Assembly. He should return there no later than Thursday morning, to face the risk of censorship.

The fall of the government would be a scenario not seen since 1962, when Georges Pompidou's censorship precipitated a dissolution of the National Assembly. Sixty-two years later, France is perhaps preparing to plunge into political, financial and economic uncertainty, three weeks before Christmas. « We are in a dead end »worries, pessimistic, Renaissance MP Karl Olive.

Negotiations until the end

Until the end, the negotiations between the government and the RN nevertheless suggested a way of passage. Monday morning, Michel Barnier calls Marine Le Pen for the first time. Both take stock of the MP’s “red lines”. Michel Barnier remains open to modifications. A few minutes later, he calls her back. He will commit to renouncing the reduction in drug reimbursements in 2025. A new concession after a series of gestures addressed to the RN – reduction on electricity taxes, announcement of the introduction of proportional representation to elect deputies or even a reduction in state medical aid (AME) for illegal immigrants.

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In a press release, Michel Barnier wants to be careful to announce this latest compromise, estimated at nearly 900 million euros according to his cabinet's calculation. He explicitly claims to respond to a request for « Marine Le Pen » a you « National gathering ». « A mistake »will later judge certain Macronists, such as the Renaissance MP Éléonore Caroit, embarrassed to see the head of government thus acceding to his wishes. But the Prime Minister wants to give tokens of respect to Marine Le Pen. In recent days, she has become very annoyed by the attitude of ministers – « they want our votes and not our heads ! »she was moved. Once his press release has been published, the Prime Minister meets the group leaders of his “common base” in Matignon at the start of the afternoon.

But a phone call suddenly makes him disappear: it's Marine Le Pen again. This time, she is demanding that the Prime Minister give in on pensions, by fully indexing them to inflation from 1^is January. Refusal by the Prime Minister. The Lepéniste lieutenants spread the word: without concession on pensions, it will be “ censored at 100 % ».

The maximum

At 3:35 p.m., in the Hemicycle, Michel Barnier's announcement is final. « Now is the time to act. […]. We have reached a moment of truth which confronts everyone with their responsibilities »he insists from the podium, with an air of defiance addressed to the oppositions. At the exit, in a packed room of the Quatre Colonnes, while the Insoumise Mathilde Panot denounces the « coup of an illegitimate government »Marine Le Pen dramatizes the moment.

« The government did not wish to move beyond the reimbursement of medicines »she says, surrounded by RN officials. « It was unbearable to refuse this request. Things were clear, Michel Barnier did not wish to respond to the request of 11 million voters. » She adds, bluntly: « He said everyone would assume their responsibilities, so we will assume ours. »

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In Matignon, Michel Barnier and his teams believe they have done their best, until their latest setback on the delisting of medicines. Her collaborators noted that Marine Le Pen herself admitted that not all of her demands could be honored. And that would not pose a problem for him « no problem »she declared Sunday to La Tribune Sundayif the government gave him, « discharge on the deindexation of pensions or on the non-reimbursement of medicines ». It was one « or » the other, we emphasize in the Prime Minister's office.

Let's emphasize that Marine Le Pen is irresponsible

Gabriel Attal

In difficulty, the occasional Macronist and LR allies are trying to launch a counter-offensive. They warn of the risk of “ chaos » by relaying the fears of employers, worried about seeing companies weakened. They point to the alliance « unnatural » announced between the RN and NFP, associating them in a new acronym: « RNFP. » In a joint press release, the parliamentary leaders of the government “base” insist: « The country's interest today is not a leap into the unknown or a worst-case strategy. »

« Let's emphasize that Marine Le Pen is irresponsible »urged Gabriel Attal during a meeting with his Renaissance deputies on Monday afternoon. On the social network X, the Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, accused the former presidential candidate of serving a « chaos logic » and his « agenda personnel “. An allusion to his legal fate, while it must be fixed in March on a possible sentence of ineligibility required by the prosecution, in the case of the parliamentary assistants of RN MEPs.

“Run after the RN”

Despite the unity displayed in the government camp, the big unpacking has begun behind the scenes. That the Prime Minister has given in so much to the RN goes down badly with certain supporters of the Prime Minister. “ It's never a good idea to chase the RN when he wants to cause chaos »underlines Republican Yannick Neuder, general rapporteur for the “Secu” budget. Several Renaissance parliamentarians wondered aloud about this strategy on Monday during a group meeting. « I don't feel like continuing to support a government that trivializes the RN and the far right »said MP Charles Sitzenstuhl.

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The bill for the gestures addressed to the RN by the Prime Minister, estimated at more than 4 billion euros, weighs heavily. Particularly next to the approximately 800 million euros granted to his ally Laurent Wauquiez on the revaluation of pensions. « What the RN got, no one got it before themwhispers the boss of the Macronist senators, François Patriat. We can give them Notre-Dame de Paris, it won’t change anything : they just want the government to fall ! » Paradoxically, the Lepénists are preparing to vote on a motion of censure from the left-wing deputies who, in their text, regret that the Prime Minister has « ceded » to their « vilest obsessions ». Starting with the reduction in the AME budget and the announcement of a new immigration law.

Everyone is now looking ahead to the post-censorship era. What will happen to the two budgetary texts, essential to the proper functioning of the State? “Special laws” should allow the State and Social Security budgets to operate at the beginning of January. But beyond that, several legal puzzles will have to be resolved.

Exit from crisis

At the same time, what about emerging from the political crisis? In the ranks of the NFP, « we demand a left-wing government ! »insists the leader of the communist deputies, André Chassaigne. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal told his troops he wanted « launch a political initiative to broaden the common base » to « socialists »under the authority of a new prime minister. « We will have to think about a government pact discussed upstream, and not once the government has been appointed. », Adds one of his close friends, former minister Prisca Thevenot.

But the target has changed place. Through Michel Barnier, the RN wants to target Emmanuel Macron. « The question that will arise in the coming days is his resignation »admitted Monday on FranceInfo the mayor of Perpignan (Pyrénées-Orientales), Louis Aliot.

Even supporters of the Prime Minister are arguing in this direction, such as Jean-François Copé and Hervé Morin. « The only way out of this is to have a presidential election as quickly as possible. »assured Monday on LCI the president (Les Centristes) of the Normandy region. A few days ago, in private, the Minister of the Civil Service, Guillaume Kasbarian, warned pessimistically: « Be careful, after the fireworks, there will be a hangover. »