“This is your last speech…”: in the Assembly, the story of the fall of Michel Barnier

When Michel Barnier takes the podium of the National Assembly this Monday, December 2, he knows that his fate is sealed. “This is your last speech”the apostrophe of a rebellious deputy on his left. Despite final negotiations in the morning, the resident of Matignon did not manage to obtain from Marine Le Pen a commitment that she would not censor the executive on the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS). Making the fall of his government inevitable. In a last attempt, primarily addressed to the elected representatives of the National Rally, and without really believing in it, the head of government implores the deputies to “not to favor their particular interests over those of the nation”.

At the other end of the hemicycle, Marine Le Pen observes, impassive, face closed and arms crossed. Minutes earlier, she informed her troops that she would seek government censure. And when Michel Barnier sits down on the bench of ministers, after announcing the triggering of article 49.3 of the Constitution on the PLFSS, the deputies of the “common base” display a defeated look. Several elected officials take the time to come and greet the Prime Minister. The President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, comes down from the perch to chat for a long time with the head of government. The former Brexit negotiator has just bitten the dust.

Until the end, the exchanges between Matignon and the leader of the far right stumbled over the deindexation of pensions, a “red line” of the RN, to which Barnier did not intend to return. And despite a final concession on the delisting of medicines, the head of government has not managed to change the opinion of Marine Le Pen, who has continued to increase pressure on the government in recent days. At the end of the morning, the martial tone of the president of the RN Jordan Bardella – the Barnier government “can’t live” – left little doubt about the outcome of the debates.

And this is the whole strategy of Michel Barnier who bet on the benevolent neutrality of an RN eager to gain credibility in view of the next presidential election to escape censorship, which collapsed in a few hours. “He wanted to play lying poker with Marine Le Pen, but in the end it was he who ended up with the losing hand”quips a deputy from Liot. “The problem with a blackmailer is that you never know where he will stop”already warned a few weeks ago a member of the majority, worried about the turn taken by the budgetary debates. In the aisles of the Assembly, the absence of numerous deputies from Modem and LR did not fail to raise questions this Tuesday. “Some people no longer believe in it,” slips an elected official.

In an indescribable crowd, the deputies rushed into the Hall of the Four Columns, to try to decipher the final upheaval of a National Assembly, made eruptive by the dissolution of last June. Shortly after 4 p.m., Marine Le Pen arrived surrounded by her main lieutenants, to confirm that she would vote to censure the government wherever it came from, including the left. Thus raising the last questions about the fate of Michel Barnier. The leader of the far right took the opportunity to increase the pressure on Emmanuel Macron: “Our Constitution is clear: when there is a serious political crisis, the President of the Republic has three possibilities: reshuffle, dissolution and resignation. »

The left is already looking ahead to the post-censorship era and the appointment of a new Prime Minister. But which one? For the president of the LFI group Mathilde Panot, Lucie Castets remains “obviously our candidate”. The boss of the PS Olivier Faure, he kicks in: “You have the art of asking questions that are not on the agenda. » In recent weeks, the president of the socialist deputies Boris Vallaud has put a new proposal on the table: the negotiation of a “non-censorship” agreement between the Macronist deputies and the left, to allow a Prime Minister from the New Front Popular to govern. An idea far from seducing LFI. “The Macronist left wing does not exist. It's an illusion. Where is the group promised by Sacha Houlié? »asks rebellious MP Alma Dufour. On the left, Michel Barnier is not yet censored, a new battle is already beginning.