Image via Sports Illustrated
Thanksgiving Weekend brings cold weather, making fantasy Football interesting with numerous cold weather games and high snow likelihood on Sunday Night Football, providing fantasy managers with a lot to consider. The weather forecast for all nine outdoor NFL games on Sunday and Monday will determine which fantasy options are risky starts this week, which players to avoid, and who may gain value due to the cold weather impact on the games.
The National Weather Service’s weather forecasts for the games are current as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, December 1, 2024, with data courtesy of TruMedia and all kickoff times are ET.
Steelers vs Bengals weather
The Cincinnati Bengals are set to face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paycor Stadium, with a forecast of freezing temperatures and below-zero wind chill. In the last ten years, NFL games have been played in temperatures between 30-40 degrees Fahrenheit, which have resulted in a 5-10% decrease in fantasy point output compared to 50-80 degrees.
Wind speeds over five miles per hour also affect the mean fantasy-point score, plummeting to about 82 per team, a drop of 15-20% from warmer games. It has the most dramatic effects on the passing game, where quarterbacks and wide receivers suffer a 10-25% decline in fantasy-point production.
Colts vs Patriots weather
The New England Patriots play the Indianapolis Colts on a cold Foxborough day, with temperatures around freezing and wind chills below freezing. This could make it hard to trust the passing game because most Patriots options were already fringe starters and thus easier to avoid. Anthony Richardson is a quarterback for the Colts and would be a concern because he has experience playing in warm weather and dome-like conditions. It is tough to trust his receiving options in these conditions despite his fantasy value, since he relies a lot on his running ability.
Seahawks vs Jets weather
On a cold day, the New York Jets play the Seattle Seahawks at MetLife Stadium. The temperature is supposed to be right around freezing, and wind chill is supposed to be below that point. During the last ten years of NFL games, 215 games have been played with kickoff temperatures between 30 and 40 Fahrenheit, an average of fantasy points that are 5-10% lower than when the temperature is 50 Fahrenheit or better.
Wind speeds above five mph significantly reduce fantasy point scores. Quarterbacks and wide receivers will be reduced by 10-15% of fantasy points, while running backs are increased but not significantly as in games played in warmer temperatures.
49ers vs Bills weather
The Buffalo Bills will be hosting the San Francisco 49ers at Highmark Stadium. Fantasy forecasts suggest that the snow should be less on Sunday, and it would ease to 0.6 inches from 1 p.m. ET to 7 p.m. ET. But it’s supposed to increase from 7-10 p.m. ET with an inch of fresh snow.
The forecast predicts significant snowfall during Sunday Night Football, with easing snowfall during the day to ensure clear fields at kickoff. Both passing games will be in the snow and the wind, as the forecast is constantly changing the amount of snow.
Browns vs Broncos weather
The Denver Broncos will face the Cleveland Browns on a chilly night, with wind chills in the mid-30s and near-freezing on the field. However, the wind is expected to be negligible, so there should be no further downgrades. A 5-10% fantasy output downgrade isn’t a concern for managers on Monday Night Football.
Also Read: Winter Wonderland Alert: Bills vs. 49ers clash set against heavy snowfall expected to blanket Buffalo
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