Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/30

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

Joel Embiid is still out? Paul George is iffy for tonight? The Sixers are still a trainwreck of a team and melting down as a franchise? Yeah, all true, and all leading me to continue to fade this awful team that needs to be put out of its misery. Cade Cunningham is back for the Pistons and looked good in his return, which gives me even more confidence to back Detroit here. I’m willing to back most teams with a pulse against this Sixers team without one, and I’ll lay this short price since Philly is still overvalued in the market.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Notre Dame -0.5 @ USC: 2:30 PM CT on CBS

The Irish are not losing this game and messing up their chance at the playoff. Ok, to be fair, the crooked CFP committee might let them in anyway for the TV ratings, but I think Notre Dame takes care of business. The Irish have rolled every opponent since almost ruining their season against Northern Illinois, and this rivalry game will be no different. USC is finishing up a lost season, and are in a letdown spot off a close win over crosstown rival UCLA that got them bowl eligibility. So I don’t see the Trojans having the motivation Notre Dame does, and the Irish should get this win.

Purdue @ Indiana -22: 6:00 PM CT on FS1

I miss the days when the easiest bet on the board was Indiana to cover any number against a bad team. The schedule got real for the Hoosiers the past few games, and they took it on the chin in a high-profile spot at Ohio State, so they’re probably glad to be facing another awful team here. There aren’t many worse teams than Purdue, at least from a defensive standpoint, as the Boilermakers allow the third-most points in the country. Indiana needs style points here in this rivalry game to keep the CFP committee’s attention, and knocking a touchdown off the number to get below a couple key numbers gives me confidence in a game where IU probably never lets up.

Houston @ BYU -5.5: 9:15 PM CT on ESPN

Reality also came for BYU in recent weeks, but this is their chance to keep hope alive and I don’t think they mess it up. Things get a lot easier today against a Houston team that can’t move the ball with Zeon Chriss having taken over at quarterback, and will struggle in the wild environment that is Provo under the lights. The Cougars should capitalize on that inept offense which has only averaged 11.8 PPG on the road this season, and hold Houston to another low output. It won’t take much from there to cover this adjusted number below all touchdown margins. And with a win being their only route to the Big12 title game and potential CFP berth, I see BYU pulling away by margin tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Eastern Washington/Utah Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The Utes have faced some weak opponents at home this season, and put up massive numbers offensively as a result, averaging 94.4 PPG at the Huntsman Center. That won’t change today when Eastern Washington comes to town, especially with the Eagles ranked 362nd in three-point percentage defense.

A Utah team that attempts the fourth-most three’s per game and shoots it at the 12th-best percentage from deep will score like crazy. But the Utes finally have a partner that can score along with them and is willing to get into an up-tempo game. Factor in elevation fatigue for the visitor and potential blowout conditions, and I see this game clearing a total that’s below what metrics sites are projecting.