In the event of 49.3 on the social security budget, a motion of censure could be voted on in the National Assembly as early as Wednesday, December 4. The timetable for a possible fall of Michel Barnier depends essentially on the behavior of the RN, which could delay the deadline to Friday December 20.
Only a matter of days left? The Socialist Party (PS) confirmed this Wednesday, November 27 that it will vote on the motion of censure against Michel Barnier if the Prime Minister triggers 49.3 to pass the state budget and that of social security without a vote.
The RN having lined up behind the rebels and the New Popular Front, the government could fall by the end of the calendar year. But when precisely? BFMTV.com takes stock of the political calendar for the coming weeks.
• Option 1: from Wednesday December 4
Parliamentarians who are members of the Joint Committee reached an agreement this Wednesday, November 27, on a compromise text on the social security budget. This version of the bill will be put to the vote of deputies one last time this Monday, December 2, from 3 p.m.
But not having a majority in the National Assembly, Michel Barnier would probably have to activate article 49.3 of the Constitution to have the PLFSS adopted without a vote. MPs will have 48 hours to submit a motion of censure. La France insoumise has warned: the text has already been written and the signatures are ready.
If the motion of censure is tabled as planned on Monday afternoon, then its examination will take place during the week, at the earliest 48 hours after its submission, i.e. on Wednesday December 4 in the afternoon. At the latest, the debate “will take place on the third sitting day following the expiration of the constitutional deadline of forty-eight hours following the filing”, specifies the National Assembly website. Or Monday, December 9.
At this stage, only the NFP is certain to vote on a motion of censure filed in response to a 49.3 on the PLFSS. RN parliamentarians will meet this Thursday, November 28 at 2 p.m. to discuss their strategy.
• Option 2: from Friday December 6
If Marine Le Pen's party adds its votes to the left, the calculation is simple: Michel Barnier falls at the beginning of December. But the far right can also grant him a slight reprieve by deciding not to vote on this first motion of censure. First… Because another text, less emblematic, which sets the budgetary adjustments for the year 2024, should arrive in the joint committee on Tuesday, December 3.
If agreed, it will be put to a vote by deputies the next day and will probably be adopted by 49.3 in the National Assembly. There will therefore be another risk of a motion of censure, discussed at the earliest on Friday December 6. And no later than Wednesday, December 11.
• Option 3: from Friday December 20
A 49.3 is also expected on the state budget, the famous finance bill. Currently debated in the Senate, it will probably be adopted by the right-wing majority. Like the PLFSS, a Joint Commission will meet once the text has been voted on.
Whether the CMP is conclusive or not, the government will present a text on Wednesday, December 18 to the National Assembly at 9:30 p.m., according to the lower house's forecast schedule. Without a majority, Michel Barnier will draw, if he is still in office, a third 49.3.
A motion of censure will once again be signed by the left, and studied no earlier than 48 hours after its submission, i.e. Friday December 20, at 9:30 p.m. During the time of the debates and the vote (in the offices of the National Assembly), the adoption – or rejection – of the motion of censure could be announced by Yaël Braun-Pivet shortly after midnight, Saturday December 21.
The vote on a motion of censure the week of Christmas seems excluded: the National Assembly is supposed to suspend its work from Monday December 23 to Sunday January 12.
Only the RN can save Barnier
The oppositions therefore have three cartridges to bring down Michel Barnier's government: the PLFSS from Wednesday 4, the end-of-management finance bill from Friday 6 and the PLF from Friday December 20.
Only a change of heart from the National Rally could, at this stage, save the Prime Minister. “We will vote on the motion of censure with the New Popular Front,” assured Jean-Philippe Tanguy during a press conference this Wednesday morning at BFMTV.
“Institutions and democratic reality require you to vote on things sometimes with your political enemies. That’s how it is. What counts is the effect,” he said.
