Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake
West Side
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 66. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
South Side
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 63 to 68. North winds up to 10 mph.
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ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 10 mph.
North Shore
Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
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Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Upcountry
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 68 at the summit. Light winds.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 43 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Light winds.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 69 at the summit. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
East Maui
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Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Lanai City
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 79. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 61. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 71 to 79. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Travel In Fours
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 67 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows 54 to 71. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 67 to 85. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Synopsis
Trade winds will weaken today and become light and variable during the weekend. The atmosphere will be stable and rather dry with minimal rainfall expected. A shallow and dissipating front move may across portions of the island chain Sunday night and Monday, bringing only modest showers and likely maintaining light winds. Light trades may return by the middle of next week.
Discussion
A stable and rather dry trade wind flow will diminish through Saturday. Trades will continue to drop as a surface high, currently sitting roughly 250 miles north of Oahu, moves east and weakens. With trades on the decline, localized overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes occurring today will become more prevalent on Saturday. A weak mid-level ridge will maintain stability, and swath of rather dry low-level air around the region will keep precipitable water below an inch. As a result, expect minimal windward rainfall, and leeward sea breezes will produce afternoon clouds over terrain, but little, if any, shower activity is expected. Dew points will hold in the lower 60s, helping to push overnight low temperatures into winter-like range of the mid to even lower 60s in some locations. In addition, a developing weak jet streak aloft will generate increased thin high clouds today and Saturday.
Sunday and early next week, the overall pattern favors light disrupted trade winds and a weak front passing over the northern end of the island chain. For Sunday, trades will become light and variable or northerly as a weak front approaches. A dry land and sea breeze pattern is likely, though a small pocket of moisture could produce some active showers on the Big Island. Timing in the deterministic GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement, showing a weak front bringing modest showers to windward and northern slopes of Kauai Sunday night and to Oahu and possibly Molokai on Monday.
Details become elusive by Tuesday due to model differences. The GFS and ECMWF are showing the potential for another weak front passing near or over the state followed by an upper-level ridge moving westward into the region around Wednesday. Ensemble guidance shows that the potential for significant rainfall is low, with light northerly winds becoming trade winds around Wednesday.
Aviation
Trades expected to be on the lighter side thought the weekend. In the lighter trades regime we could see some localized land/sea breezes. Any SHRA and low cigs should be confined to windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR conds can be expected in any SHRA but otherwise VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETS are in effect.
Marine
A weak ridge of high pressure north of the state is producing light to locally fresh winds. This ridge will gradually weaken and shift south late tonight and over the weekend as a weak front approaches from the northwest. In response, winds will gradually become light and variable Saturday into early next week. A weak transient high will build north of the state by the middle of next week allowing gentle to fresh northeasterly trade winds to briefly return.
A small, medium period, north northeast swell (010-030 degrees) is filling at CDIP Hilo and Pauwela near shore buoys early this morning. This should produce some small surf along north facing shores today. Another more moderate, medium period pulse from the same source is expected Saturday along with a similar size overlapping northwest swell (320 degrees). These combined swells will elevate surf along north and west facing shores just shy of High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria on Sunday before subsiding early next week. A Marine Weather Statement remains in effect for harbor surges, particularly at Hilo and Kahului harbor, generated by the more northerly swells.
Surf along east facing shores will see some energy from the northeasterly swell wrap today into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will become more elevated over the weekend, especially Saturday into to Sunday as the swell peaks and shifts more easterly, wrapping into exposed areas.
Fire weather
KBDI values remain high across the state, and an overall dry weather pattern is expected through at least Sunday over most islands. With dry air moving overhead, relative humidity values will have the potential to drop below the critical 45% threshold during the late morning and afternoon hours. However, lighter winds will mitigate fire weather concerns.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
