Talking about weather forecasts for Christmas at the end of November is obviously completely without scientific basis.
But of course, the idea of imagining what the weather conditions might be like during the holidays is always fascinating.
In recent years, due to climate change, the chances of experiencing a white Christmas in Italy have practically disappeared. For some Winters, the holiday days are more often characterized by High Pressure and mild temperatures, comparable to Spring, which were at least rare in the past.
Christmas with snow: a dream of the past
For there to be hope for a white Christmas, a rather complex atmospheric configuration is necessary.
The weather should be under the control of a vast Azores High positioned over Western Europe.
This placement would favor the descent of cold currents coming from Russia and the Scandinavian Peninsula, capable of reaching the Mediterranean basin. Such a scenario has become increasingly rare over the years, let alone thinking about it just before the holidays.
Formation of a winter cyclone in the Mediterranean
Obviously, it’s not over yet.
To have snowy holidays, it is necessary for the cold currents, crossing Europe, to reach the Mediterranean through the Rhone Valley, favoring the interaction between the icy air and the warmer waters of the sea.
This process could lead to the formation of a cyclone, responsible for widespread weather phenomena such as rain, thunderstorms, and snowfalls.
Snow in the plains: a mirage?
The configuration necessary to have snow down to the plains during Christmas is already unusual in itself.
A flow of icy air from the northeast combined with the effect of the warmer waters of the Mediterranean would be necessary.
Only in this way could snowfalls occur even at low altitudes, with the possibility of a snow-covered Northern Italy and moderate snowfalls on the hills of Central Italy.
However, such conditions are not only rare, but they would need to occur just in the days preceding December 24 and 25, an extremely difficult eventuality that has only happened recently in…2000, that is, 24 years ago!
Dreaming costs nothing, but we must face reality
At the moment, making reliable forecasts for Christmas weather is impossible.
Atmospheric dynamics are defined with greater precision only in the days immediately preceding, and any attempt to outline a climatic picture well in advance risks being a sort of joke. What can be said is that, with the current climatic trend, an anticyclonic Christmas, characterized by stable and mild days, is much more likely than having a snowstorm.
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