Russia’s possible use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a message to the West that it is has greater capabilities than previously displayed after a week of significant military operations and policy changes in both Ukraine and Russia.
The West has for some time been concerned at a reciprocal Russian escalation in the war. This week, both US and British-French-made missiles have been fired into Russia by Ukraine, after US President Joe Biden gave Kyiv permission to use longer-range American missiles.
In turn, President Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine — in a nuanced way, but still refined their policy to lower the threshold for use.
There is no indication that the potential ICBM that Russia fired at around 5 a.m. local time was a nuclear weapon, and there is no evidence that a nuclear explosion was witnessed overnight. Such an event would have elicited a very different reaction in Kyiv and the West.
But it is also notable that the US, Greek, and Spanish embassies in Kyiv closed on Wednesday. It could be possible they had been notified of Russia’s possible ICBM launch and took precautionary measures; a nuclear power, when using a missile like this, might choose to warn other nuclear powers, so they don’t mistake it as a different kind of launch.
So what we know now is very little: a Ukrainian air force statement that an ICBM was used, a different set of sounds in Dnipro. But the effect remains palpable. Russia has tried and perhaps succeeded in sending a message by firing likely a new type of conventional missile to get through Ukrainian air defenses.
This escalation doesn’t necessarily mean a sea change in Russia’s capabilities, or in the outcome of the war, which was already going in their favor.
The key questions we do not have an answer yet to are: What exactly was this missile, what is it capable of doing, and what did it do?
