Photo Credit: Laila Reiss
West Side
Today: Sunny. Highs 77 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Side
Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Clear. Lows 64 to 73. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
North Shore
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Central Maui
Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Upcountry
Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
East Maui
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Lanai City
Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Travel In Fours
Today: Sunny. Highs 67 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 57 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs 67 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Synopsis
With the exception of showers over windward Big Island, a general drying trend is expected beginning today and lasting through the next several days. Additionally, trade winds will be on a weakening trend, becoming light and variable by Friday. A weak cold front will bring a wind shift to the northwest and a chance of showers on Sunday. Northeasterly trade winds and mostly dry weather are expected early next week.
Discussion
The band of higher moisture that moved over the smaller islands during the evening and overnight hours is exiting the region early this morning, and is now confined to mainly the leeward Kauai waters as drier air nudges in from the east. This drier airmass is resulting in a significant decrease in windward showers and low clouds over the smaller islands when compared to yesterday evening. The exception, however, is the Big Island where latest satellite and radar imagery shows showers and low clouds embedded within the trade winds continuing to stream into windward locations. In the upper levels, a low aloft just south of the state is contributing to the continued shower activity for windward Big Island, but this feature will gradually weaken and drift off to the east over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, showers will gradually wane here too as the atmosphere becomes more stable.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered north of the islands is weakening as it moves south. Although locally breezy trade winds were observed in an Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) pass last night, winds will continue on a downward trend for the next few days as this high continues to weaken and several areas of low pressure pass north of the islands. The high is forecast to dissipate on Friday, at which point a ridge will extend over the area from the east. Light and variable winds and mostly dry weather will prevail as the mid-level ridge persists. This regime will continue Saturday.
Guidance continues to indicate that a weak or dissipating front will move over the islands from the northwest on Sunday, bringing a renewed chance of showers (though rainfall accumulations will be minimal). Ensemble consensus indicates high pressure will build north of the islands early next week, with Sunday’s post-frontal northwest winds veering to the northeast Monday and Tuesday. A mid-level ridge building over the area will support a mostly dry regime through the first half of next week.
Aviation
Trades will decrease gradually through Friday. SHRA and low cigs should mainly be confined to windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas. Some brief MVFR conds will be possible in any SHRA. Otherwise, VFR conds should prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
Marine
Surface high pressure settling in over the far north offshore waters will weaken regional trade winds to primarily gentle to locally moderate breezes by Thursday. The west-to-east orientated surface ridge axis of high pressure laying across the northern waters will result in generally light to gentle breezes across most coastal waters, with moderate trades over the Alenuihaha Channel and south of Big Island, the next several days. Light winds are favored ahead of the approach of a weak front nearing Kauai Sunday. Gentle breezes will veer northwest to northeast early next week behind this frontal passage.
No significant swells are expected the next few days with slowly subsiding trade wind waves; a more calm overall sea state going into the latter half of the week. Nearshore windward buoys are observing a near 5 foot trade wind swell that will maintain above seasonal average rough east shore surf through the day. This short period trade wind swell will decline to around 4 feet Thursday and then further fade throughout the weekend.
A small, medium period northwest (320 degree) swell is due Thursday and will pass by on Friday. A moderate size, lower period northwest (320 degree) swell developing from a pair of lows far northwest of the islands is scheduled to travel through this weekend and peak Sunday. A smaller reinforcing northwest pulse (320 degree) is due Monday and Tuesday. Northeast (30 degree) swell originating from a very large, powerful hurricane force low churning off the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast will begin arriving as a moderate size, medium to long period swell Friday and peak on Saturday. None of these swells are expected to produce advisory level surf.
Fire weather
KBDI values remain high across the state and a general drying trend is expected for the next several days. With the dry air moving overhead, relative humidity values will have the potential to reach the critical 45% threshold from late morning through the afternoon each day through Sunday. Fortunately, however, weak trade winds will mitigate fire weather concerns through the rest of this week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.
Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!
Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov
