16-day weather: Are we starting the pre-Christmas season with fog?

Tue November 19, 2024 | 4:03 p.m
– Johanna Lindner

The first winter feelings are just starting to appear. In many regions there was the first snow down to lower altitudes and it will remain cold in the next few days. But things don’t seem to be continuing like this.

The first snow has already fallen in many regions of Germany and autumn is slowly coming to an end, at least according to meteorological calculations. After this, winter begins on December 1st, which this year is also the 1st Advent. Then we finally start the beautiful pre-Christmas season, when we want romantic winter landscapes. Is the weather playing along this year? Our meteorologist Georg Haas looks at the weather in the next few weeks in the current 16-day trend.

Cold week until November 24th

If we look at the temperature deviation map of the European ECMWF model, the week up to November 24th is clearly too cold across Germany. This is an effect of polar air moving in after Tuesday’s storm. Then there will be snow in some places down to deep levels.

On the precipitation deviation map you can also see a week that is too wet, which initially indicates snow, sleet and rain.

The following week was too warm due to the southern foehn

But according to Haas, that will change the following week. Then there will only be a lot of precipitation on the southern side of the Alps, namely in the southern part of the Alps. According to the meteorologist, on the other side of the Alps, i.e. on the north side, southern foehn is coming into play and can significantly warm the air mass.

This can also be seen on the ECMWF model temperature map for the week of November 25th to December 1st. Then it will be too warm, especially in the south. According to Haas, it is also stormy in the south due to the foehn.

“In the following period, from December 2nd to 8th, the weather will calm down and under the influence of high pressure, such a big spectacle will probably no longer be expected,” explains Georg Haas. You can see on the precipitation deviation map around the high pressure area that things are rather too dry.

High pressure areas bring a lot of fog

And high pressure areas bring sunshine in the higher mountain areas at this time of year. However, as we recently experienced, high pressure areas also bring a lot of fog and high fog in autumn. Haas predicts a classic, no longer November, but December gray.

Summary

After an intrusion of polar air, it is initially wintry with frost and snow. On Sunday, November 24th, 2024, there will be a change in the weather. In the south it will then become stormy and significantly milder before a new high pressure area brings calm weather and fog back.

According to the meteorologist’s assessment, there is an 80 percent probability that the influence of high pressure will predominate on the 1st of Advent. But there are still remaining uncertainties, says Haas.

Further recommendations from the editors on the topic: Weather

To the weather news overview