Joe Biden surprisingly allows Ukraine to use long-range weapons. In doing so, he changed the military balance. This may strengthen Trump’s peace strategy. It could be his last strategic coup.
Bastian Brauns reports from Washington
The outgoing US President Joe Biden has apparently made a momentous decision. According to several consistent US media reports, the American government is said to have now decided after months of hesitation: Ukraine should be allowed to use long-range weapons, the so-called ATACMS, on Russian soil with immediate effect. Limited in particular to the Kursk region of Russia. The French and British allies should also subsequently allow Ukraine to use the SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles they have supplied.
Biden’s decision marks a clear turning point in Western support for Ukraine in its defensive war against the Russian invasion. Despite the ongoing concerns about an escalation with Vladimir Putin, the arguments for giving Ukraine more options now seem to predominate in the White House. After almost three years, the US President is giving up his reticence on this issue in the middle of the sensitive transition phase before Donald Trump takes office.
So why now? Could Donald Trump possibly already be involved in Joe Biden’s decision? Or does the release of American long-range weapons contradict the future US president’s Ukraine plans?
To answer these questions, note a remarkable interview given by Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, just one day before Election Day on November 5th. When asked how Donald Trump, as a possible president, would like to quickly resolve the war in Ukraine, Waltz replied: “I think that we will bring Putin to the negotiating table. We have opportunities to influence, for example by uncuffing Ukraine “Regarding the long-range weapons that we also supplied.”
Around two weeks after Mike Waltz’s comments, Joe Biden has now apparently made exactly this decision. And contrary to the opinions often expressed by the many-voiced Trump camp, this remarkable step could even fit in with Donald Trump’s plans for a peace deal with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. Because Trump’s overarching doctrine is “peace through strength.”
Trump consistently argues that demonstrating overwhelming military and economic strength forces opponents to negotiate. Allowing Ukraine to use the US-supplied ATACMS on Russian soil is in line with this philosophy. As Trump’s new security adviser Mike Waltz has already suggested, this military strength could be used to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to make concessions in negotiations.
Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours may initially seem at odds with Biden’s decision. However, a closer look shows how compatible both are. Trump’s strategy relies on creating conditions under which both sides have no choice but to negotiate. According to this reading, military pressure would have to be exerted on Russia and further energy sanctions would have to be imposed. At the same time, the USA could then use its influence over Ukraine to bring President Volodymyr Zelenskyj to the negotiating table.
Biden’s permission to attack Russian territory with ATACMS also fulfills Trump’s dual objective. It weakens Russia’s military position and at the same time could signal to Ukraine now that US support is conditional on seeking a diplomatic solution instead of prolonging the conflict for further months and years. Volodymyr Zelenskyj had recently said publicly that with Trump the war would end more quickly.
According to US media reports, Biden’s departure from his previous restraint is due to an escalation that has been observed for weeks. Because North Korea has apparently now sent troops with more than 10,000 soldiers to Ukraine to support Russian armed forces, the USA is now finally forced to act. The release of the ATACMS is seen in Washington, but also in Paris and London, as a necessity to balance the growing potential for conflict in Ukraine’s favor.
