The week promises to be hectic in France. The disturbances will follow one another due to a retreat towards the Atlantic of the anticyclone which was located over France.
From mid-week, a descent of polar air will also occur over the country. It will cause temperatures to drop, which will then be significantly below seasonal averages in most regions. This situation will also be conducive to a snowy episode, the existence and extent of which remains to be determined.
The maps used below are those from Météo France. They concern the afternoon of each day.
Monday: heavy rain in the North
Precipitation is progressing from the north of the country. The day will remain gray north of an axis going from Bordeaux to the southern Alps. This demarcation will also be one of the markers of the week. South of this line the sky will remain clear.
The rains will be heavy in the north of Hauts-de-France and Seine-Maritime. Two to three weeks of average precipitation could fall in just 24 hours.
Maximum temperatures will be consistent with mid-November values. It will be 9°C to 14°C in the north of France and around ten to just over fifteen in the southern half.
Tuesday: more rain and strong wind
The rains are gaining ground towards the south of the country. Like the day before, it is the Bordeaux – Southern Alps line which serves as the limit. Precipitation is widespread, for almost the entire day north of it. The wind will also strengthen significantly. It would regularly reach 70 km/h to 80 km/h in gusts. Near the coast, going from Finistère to the North, it would blow up to around a hundred kilometers per hour, or even 110 km/h.
South of the Bordeaux – south of the Alps axis, the wind could reach 40 km/h – 50 km/h in the afternoon. The sun will dominate before precipitation reaches parts of these regions at the end of the day and in the evening.
Temperatures will range from just under 10°C in the north of France to 13°C. In the southern half, they will be between 10°C and 18°C, with Pyrénées-Orientales and Corsica being the hottest places.
Wednesday: sun and transition
This day should be the clearest of the week. It marks the transition between the rains at the start of the week and those of the second part. In the meantime, the sky is clear over most of the territory, except for the South-West and the Pyrenees. Showers will move north towards the end of the day.
This mostly clear weather goes hand in hand with a descent of polar air over the country. Maximum temperatures thus experience a clear drop. They would range from 1°C to 7°C in the North in the afternoon, a little more in Finistère. In the regions south of the Bordeaux – Southern Alps demarcation, they would be between around ten and around fifteen degrees.
Thursday: very disturbed weather, uncertainty about the snow in the plains
This day is expected to be very disrupted across almost the entire territory, from morning until evening. Precipitation should be regular. With the cooling of the air mass, uncertainty remains over the presence of snow in the plains. Most weather models converge towards such a scenario at one time or another of the day in the northern half of France. But they differ on the location, which will depend on the precise positioning of the center of the depression, and on the intensity.
Temperatures would range from 1°C to 5°C in the North, a little closer to the coast, or up to 7°C to 8°C below seasonal norms. This corresponds to levels worthy of mid-winter. To find higher temperatures, the Bordeaux – Southern Alps line will once again serve as a demarcation. South of it it could be up to around fifteen degrees.
Friday: very variable weather
Rainfall is expected to continue very sparsely over most of the country. Only one axis going from the Massif Central to the North-Eastern borders would be continuously affected. Snow would continue to fall on the massifs.
Temperatures should remain of the same order as the day before in the northern half. In the South, the maximum temperatures could lose 2°C or 3°C compared to the day before.
Next weekend: rising temperatures and rain
The forecast is quite uncertain at the moment. But the scenario that emerges is that of a particularly rainy weekend with a clear rise in temperatures. The increase would occur at the end of the day on Saturday. Sunday afternoon, with showers, it would be a little over ten degrees in the north of France, a return to seasonal norms. In the south of the country, it could reach almost 20°C in the South-West.
