A disturbance will sweep through France next week, entering the coast of the English Channel this Monday, November 18 before affecting the whole of France. The cold will also set in mid-week.
After the calm of the week and the weekend, “much more disturbed” weather will reach France from this Monday, November 18. The anticyclone will give way to a “rainy disturbance”, announces Météo France.
This disturbance will make its entrance this Monday, November 18 via the Channel coast and will affect the far north, between the Bay of Seine and Nord-Pas-de-Calais. On the menu: wind, and above all, rain.
“At the end of the day in Nord-pas-de-Calais, up to 40 mm of rain could be recorded very locally,” tells us Tristan Amm, forecaster at Météo France.
A quantity which “is not very significant compared to normal”. Rainfall accumulations will vary elsewhere in the department between 15 and 30 mm.
Over the northern third, more or less thick clouds will circulate this Monday and the wind will blow, when the rest of the country will be able to benefit from clearings. In terms of temperatures, the thermometer will hover around seasonal norms, i.e. around 10°C in the north and 12°C in the south, with peaks at 17°C in Montpellier and Nice and 19°C in Ajaccio.
A disruption that will sweep the country
It is from Tuesday that the “disturbance will sink in”: the rain will “sweep” the country in 24 hours, from north to south. “It will be the rainiest day of the week,” warns Tristan Amm. While it remains difficult for forecasters to estimate at this stage the quantity of water that could fall, Météo France predicts “fairly active precipitation”. Wind is also expected as well as a return of snow in the mountains at medium and low altitude.
According to the dangerous phenomena forecast bulletin established this Thursday, the probability of a dangerous phenomenon occurring this Tuesday is however low.
The disruption will continue to play out mid-week. Throughout the country, precipitation could still be intense this Wednesday and Thursday. “There will be a trailing sky, the weather will be more unstable, solid showers are expected at low altitude,” says the forecaster.
A winter air
A winter atmosphere will set in: cold air will rush into France from Wednesday. On Wednesday morning, it will be between 2 and 5°C in the northern half, it will be between 3 and 7°C in the center and 8 to 16°C in Nice, in the far south. In the afternoon, the whole of France will only gain a small degree.
Thursday it will be a little colder again. The thermometer will display -5°C in Bourg-Saint-Maurice, -1°C in Gap and 0°C in Belfort, three areas where snow is forecast. It will also be 1°C in Aurillac and Chaumont, 2°C in Alençon, Tours and Limoges, 3°C in Vichy, Rennes and Auxerre. Or 4°C in Lille, Lyon and Nantes, 6°C in Montpellier, Brest, and Bordeaux. 10°C should be reached in Nice and 14°C in Ajaccio. Like the day before, the mercury will rise very little across the entire territory in the afternoon.
“This weather seems to be maintained thereafter,” notes Tristan Amm. “Given the forecasts that can be made until the end of next week, we do not yet see the return of anticyclonic conditions.” He tells us that a new disturbance will arrive at the end of next week from the Atlantic.
