Due to the defeat against Italy, the Red Devils no longer have a chance of reaching the final phase of the Nations League. Third place in their group in the A division is now the highest achievable. Although the Devils could also finish fourth in a worst-case scenario. An overview of the possible scenarios and their consequences.
Belgium takes at least one point
Due to Israel’s draw on the French field, it still has a chance of third place. However, if the Red Devils score at least one point against Israel on Sunday, they will be assured of third place. That third place would save our country from direct relegation from the A division. In that case, the Devils will have to complete a jump-off against one of the runners-up from the B division in March. The winner of that jump-off match will then compete in the A division in the next edition of the Nations League.
Belgium loses by a maximum of two goals
If the Belgians lose against Israel by a maximum of two goals difference in Hungary on Sunday, both countries will each count four points. However, in that case Belgium would still be third. After all, if there is an equal number of points, they first look at the mutual duels. Since Belgium won the first leg 3-1, they will have a better goal difference in the mutual matches against Israel if they lose by one goal.
Suppose the score is 2-0, and Israel wins by two goals, then the goal difference in the mutual match is equal and both countries also score the same amount in the mutual matches. According to UEFA rules, the goal difference in the entire group stage is then taken into account. The Devils currently have a goal difference of -2 compared to -9 with Israel. In the event of a defeat by two goals, the Belgian goal difference would become -4 and that of Israel -7, meaning that the Belgians would still finish third.
Belgium loses by more than two goals
Only with a heavier defeat will things really become dramatic for the Devils. After all, Israel then has a better goal difference in mutual matches than the Red Devils. In that scenario, Belgium drops back to fourth place and is therefore relegated to the B division. Yet things must go wrong for the Devils if that worst-case scenario is to become reality.
