SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – A tropical disturbance labeled Invest 99L is being watched closely for possibly becoming the next named storm. As of 7 p.m. Tuesday the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 7 days, and a 70% chance in the next 2 days. If it develops it will become the 18th named storm of the season. This season have been hyperactive especially for Florida. The latest trends have this system developing into a tropical depression or storm before the weekend is over.
It is too early as to where the storm may go, but typically these late season storms are pulled northward usually by cold fronts and then they move to the NE around the high pressure system that follows a cold front. That is the usual pattern, but this season has been anything but normal. This one isn’t going to follow the same track as Rafael it looks like at this time.
It is expected to meander in the west Caribbean sea for a few days before it gets tugged northward or northeastward by the end of the weekend. The latest global forecast models, the EURO and GFS (American) show the storm staying south in the Caribbean through the weekend and then moving toward the SE Gulf of Mexico early next week. Since the center hasn’t formed as of yet there are going to be changes it the forecast track. Once the storm is labeled as a tropical depression or storm we will then see a cone of uncertainty issued by the National Hurricane Center. It is still too early to say what impacts, if any, we may see here. The latest GFS takes it near the big Bend area of Florida while the EURO moves it near south Florida near Marco Island and then across the state of Florida and into the Atlantic.
We will see these models change in their projections over the next several days until a clear center has formed. Once the center has been established then we will have a better handle on the best track.
Expect to see some slightly cooler but mainly drier air move in behind a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. That is to say it will be moving basically from the NE to the west. Temperatures will only drop a couple of degrees from what we have been seeing. The high on Tuesday was 88 degrees tying the record high set back in 1986.
Temperatures will get back to more seasonable reading by Friday as a second cold front moves through. This front will move in on Friday morning with little chance for rain. We will see drier air move in making for a comfortable weekend ahead. Highs will be near 80 and lows near 60 beginning on Friday and lasting through Sunday.
Boaters beware as winds will pick up out of the east and northeast on Wednesday at 15-20 knots and seas building to 2-4 feet making for rough boating conditions especially offshore.
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