Since Tuesday, cold air has arrived from central Europe towards France, drained by a depression called a “cold drop”. As this depression passed, the snow arrived as expected on our massifs. This first slight winter offensive is only temporary because the cold drop quickly disappears in Spain. The weather becomes calm again but the cold air will remain present in our country until Saturday.
Temperatures will not drop any further
The cold drop is now moving towards Spain © The Weather Channel
The air mass arriving in France is completely typical for the season. It is the instability linked to the cold drop which amplified this cooling effect (snow and wind). But there is not a large enough reserve of cold air in Europe for temperatures to continue to fall this week. On the contrary, our air mass map shows that temperatures are remarkably high at high latitudes (for example it was up to +20°C this weekend in Iceland).
Nights sometimes quite cold depending on cloud cover
The central-eastern regions and the mountains will be the coldest in France © The Weather Channel
From now on, two factors will contribute to the cold and how you feel: the presence of wind and clouds.
The wind does not lower temperatures but causes a colder feeling which is called “wind chill”. This will be the case this Wednesday with the presence of the north wind. It's this wind that may have surprised you this Tuesday afternoon.
Clouds directly influence temperatures: if the sky is overcast during the night, this prevents the cooling of the air at ground level (“radiation”). The clouds act like a blanket, so that the nighttime drop in temperatures is limited, and it will not freeze (on the plains). Conversely, during the day, the persistence of these clouds prevents the sun from warming the air and temperatures plateau.
If your sky is clear, nighttime radiation will be intense and temperatures can reach zero degrees with a few frosts. But during the day, the sunshine will cause the thermometer to rise. As a result, we will observe a strong thermal amplitude between the morning and the afternoon.
For this second part of the week, the northeastern third regions will be subject to numerous clouds. So, it will not freeze at night but temperatures will plateau in the afternoons. This configuration is conducive to turning your heaters back on.
But, from regions from the southwest to the center-east, the sky will often be clear. The clear nights will be conducive to a few frosts, more marked in the mountains, while it will be quite good in the afternoon sun.
In total, this week presents temperatures 3°C lower than seasonal averages, but with regional disparities. These are completely typical temperatures when we arrive in mid-November.
Next week: towards disturbed cold
Polar air from Iceland will head towards France © @La Chaine Météo
After a transition weekend, air coming from the pole (therefore: maritime polar air) should plunge towards France. This configuration will have nothing to do with this week's situation. It will be more classic. This polar air shift will cause unsettled, windy and rainy weather with temperatures that are barely seasonal, or even lower, which will need to be fine-tuned. But this configuration will be conducive, if it is confirmed, to good snowfall in the mountains, which could then constitute the first serious plastering of the season.
