Nov 11 2024 –
Climate change continues to pose an existential threat to humanity.
Recent science estimates that we may have less than six years left to change course.
This intensifying climate emergency is being seen everywhere in heatwaves, droughts, floods, fires, and hurricanes.
April of this year was the world’s hottest month on record – the 11th consecutive month to set a new temperature high.
And while we are witnessing mass coral bleaching from Australia to Kenya to Mexico, East Africa and Brazil have been devastated by floods – killing hundreds and displacing hundreds of thousands.
Few scientists believe we will manage to keep within the internationally agreed target of limiting post-industrial era temperature increases by 1.5C.
This year’s COP29 UN Climate summit will be hosted in Azerbaijan – the petro-state still committed to fossil fuel production.
Indeed, the government’s share of oil production was a staggering $19.3 billion in 2022 – surpassing the entire public spending budget of that year.
But who will pay for the economic and physical damage brought by climate change?
The IMF calculates that global fossil fuel subsidies amounted to $7 trillion in 2022 – about 7% of global GDP.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, $2.4 trillion was spent on military costs and weapons in 2023.
“Climate justice” was a key theme at COP28, where countries agreed to help climate vulnerable communities.
Voluntary pledges by developed countries have amounted to $700 million – a drop in the ocean, as the UN estimates the costs of climate-related losses will range from $160-$340 billion a year by 2030.
Reaching net zero emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases by 2050 means they must halve by 2030.
The UK, a global leader in cutting emissions, is backsliding on its commitments, and there is danger other powerful allies will withdraw from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement.
Corporate giants of fossil fuels and their political allies tell us that the 2050 zero emissions target is too much too soon.
Asking us to adjust our sights, they point at China – the world’s biggest polluter.
But China’s solar installations in the first quarter of 2024 were up by 34%.
Their wind installations were up by nearly 50% on the preceding year.
If China can maintain such green energy growth, then it is possible that global emissions may start to fall later this year or next.
G20 nations have been much too slow to increase their climate ambitions.
The start of a downward trend would be a historic moment that could shift the dial on what societies and our political leaders can think of being possible.
By contrast, a recent report by the United Nations Development Program highlights the less privileged showing resilience in the face of death:
93% of Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States have submitted climate pledges or plan to do so.
More than 40 nations have started actively reducing their emissions. The big question is how quickly can we reduce?
Todd Stern, former special envoy for climate change under Barack Obama, believes net zero by 2050 is possible.
It’s extremely difficult and will require huge changes to the world economy.
But it is possible.
