The Celtics are on the road for the second of 3 games this season against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Celtics beat them 119-108 in Boston on October 28. They will meet for a third and final time in Boston on December 6. The series was tied 2-2 last season with each team winning 2 games at home. The Celtics are 119-114 overall all time against the Bucks, and they are 43-74 in games played in Milwaukee.
The Celtics stood pat for the most part in the off season, bringing back their entire core of players and losing just Svi Mykhailiuk and Oshae Brissett. They added Baylor Scheierman, who was the 30th pick in the draft and signed 2nd round pick, Anton Watson to a 2 way contract. They have one open roster spot. They have also added a couple of chips on their shoulder after Olympic snubs and other drama over the summer.
The Bucks made several changes in the off season after a disappointing 49-33 finish in the 2023-24 season. They parted ways with Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Jae Crowder, Danilo Gallinari and Thanasis Antetokounmpo. They added veterans Taurean Prince, Gary Trent, Jr, and Delon Wright. They also added rookies AJ Johnson and Tyler Smith.
The Bucks have been alternating home and road games recently. The Bucks played at home vs Cleveland and then on the road against Cleveland. They then returned home to play the Jazz before heading to New York to play the Knicks. And now they are back home to take on the Celtics for the first of 3 home games. They will host Toronto and Detroit before heading out on the road to play the Hornets.
The Celtics have played 6 out of 10 games on the road so far. They had a 4 game road trip that they finished 3-1 and then returned home to play the Warriors and Nets before heading out on the road once again to play the Bucks. After this game, they will return home to play the Atlanta Hawks and then back on the road to play the Brooklyn Nets. Then back at home for 2 games against the Raptors and Cavaliers.
Jaylen Brown has been upgraded for this game from out to questionable after missing the last 4 games. I’m going to be optimistic and have included Jaylen in the starting lineup. If he can’t play, Joe will likely start the double big lineup again. Luke Kornet is questionable with a hip injury and Jalen Springer is questionable with a knee injury. Finally, Kristaps Porzingis remains out as he rehabs from ankle surgery.
For the Bucks, Kris Middleton remains out as he rehabs from ankle surgery. He has been cleared for 3 on 3 practice but has yet to play 5 on 5. Gary Trent, Jr is questionable with back spasms and will be a game time decision. Andre Jackson, Jr, who was starting in Trent’s spot is also questionable with a hip injury. If neither Trent or Jackson can play, then Pat Connaughton will likely start. Finally, Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable as he deals with patella tendinopathy.
Probable Celtics Starters
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Celtics Reserves
Luke Kornet
Payton Pritchard
Nehemiah Queta
Baylor Scheierman
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman, Sr
Jordan Walsh
Sam Hauser
2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Anton Watson
Injuries/Out
Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) out
Jaylen Brown (hip) questionable
Luke Kornet (hamstring) questionable
Jaden Springer (knee) questionable
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Bucks Starters
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Bucks Reserves
MarJon Beauchamp
Pat Connaughton
Andre Jackson, Jr
AJ Johnson
Chris Livingston
Bobby Portis, Jr.
Tyler Smith
Delon Wright
Two Way Players
Liam Robbins
Ryan Rollins
Stanley Umude
Injuries/Out
AJ Green (toe) probable
Khris Middleton (ankle) out
Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) probable
Head Coach
Doc Rivers
Key Matchups
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Jaylen Brown vs Giannis Antetokounmpo
Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. He is shooting 60.5% from the field and hasn’t hit a 3 on the season. I have Jaylen Brown starting here but since he is questionable, he may not play. If Brown is out, it will likely be Jayson Tatum starting at small forward once again. It will be important to stay with Giannis and try to limit his scoring and rebounding.
Grid View
Jrue Holiday vs Damian Lillard
Lillard is averaging 27.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game. He is shooting 46.0% from the field and 36.9% from beyond the arc. This one is personal for Jrue, who was traded away from the Bucks to get Damian Lillard. Lillard may be able to replace Jrue’s offense, but can’t come close to replacing his defense and his intangibles.
Honorable Mention
Al Horford vs Brook Lopez
Lopez is averaging 9.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. He his shooting 39.7% from the field and 26.2% from beyond the arc. Once again, if Jaylen can’t play, Al will likely move to power forward while Neemias Queta or Xavier Tillman starts at center.
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always the biggest key to winning. Defense really does win championships. The Celtics have climbed to 5th with a defensive rating of 108.7. The Bucks are 22nd with a defensive rating of 115.7. The Celtics held the Bucks to 25.8% shooting from beyond the arc in their first meeting. The Celtics must work harder than the Bucks on defense and keep their focus on the defensive end so as not to allow any easy baskets for the Bucks.
Rebound – Next to defense, rebounding is always a big key to winning. As Pat Riley once said, “No rebounds, no rings.” The key to rebounding is effort and focus. They have been out rebounded in 6 out of 10 games this season. They are 5-0 when they out rebound or are tied with their opponents and just 3-2 when they are out rebounded. The Bucks are 16th with 43.7 rebounds per game while the Celtics are 17th with 43.6 rebounds per game. The Celtics have to fight harder in this game to beat the Bucks to rebounds.
Don’t Underestimate the Bucks – The Bucks have not been playing well, going just 2-7 so far this season. However, the Bucks are still a rival in the Eastern Conference that has 2 very good stars. Antetokounmpo and Lillard are very dangerous and they have some solid players around them. There is a good possibility that the Celtics will see them in the playoffs at some point. The Celtics have to give max effort on the boards and on defense and they have to give that effort for the entire game and not just 2 quarters.
3 Point Shooting – The Celtics are first in the league, averaging 51.4 three pointers per game. They are shooting 36% from the field as a team from beyond the arc. In games like Friday against the Nets, the Celtics struggled from beyond the arc and so they had to figure out other ways to score and they had to increase their defensive effort until they could begin hitting some 3’s again. The Celtics need to work to get open and move the ball to find the best shots. If the 3’s aren’t falling, they need to take the ball inside.
X-Factors
On the Road and Revenge – The Celtics are on the road and so will have the distractions of travel, being away from family, staying in hotels, and playing in front of a hostile crowd. They need to stay focused and not allow any of those distractions to take away from playing their game. Every team gives their best to try to beat the Celtics and the Bucks will have additional motivation to get even for their loss earlier in the season.
Coaching – Doc Rivers coached the Celtics from 2004 until 2013 and quit when the Celtics traded Pierce and Garnett to start a rebuild. The Celtics have had a relatively short rebuild and have been largely successful since he left. Doc has struggled in each of his stops with the Clippers, 76ers and now the Bucks. Doc would love nothing more than to beat his former team while the Celtics would love to beat their former coach.
Officiating – The officiating can always be an x-factor. Some referees call the game tight and others let them play. Some favor the home team and others call it evenly. Some refs just seem to have an agenda that doesn’t fit the play on the court. And sometimes the refs are simply bad. Giannis seems to always get more than his share of calls as he plows through players on his way to the hoop, leaving bodies in his wake. He is 3rd with 10.3 free throws attempted per game. The Celtics have to play through however the refs call the game, whether it is tight or they let them play or they make terrible calls. The Celtics can’t allow bad calls or no calls to take away their focus on the game.
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