The provisional results of the American presidential election allow us to visualize the progression of the Republican vote across the entire country.
Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris is clear. The progression of the Republican vote too, even in counties that had until then been solidly Democratic. If the full results of the vote are not yet known on Friday November 8, the first data already allows a draft of the new American electoral map.
To visualize these results, franceinfo analyzed the data published by the New York Times and the agency Associated Press. As of Friday, some states had not finished tabulating election results: of the 3,113 counties listed by the New York Timesonly 2,945 had a counting rate above 90%. The counting of votes was, for example, still in progress in California or in the state of Washington. And the results of two swing statesArizona and Nevada, were still not published.
These provisional data nevertheless make it possible to note the progression of the vote in favor of Donald Trump between 2020 – when he was beaten by Joe Biden (without ever acknowledging his defeat) and 2024 – where he largely beat Kamala Harris by winning at least 295 major voters. The map below shows the difference between his two scores, in percentage points. According to this partial data, the president-elect obtained a better score in nearly 2,500 counties and in almost all states.
This Trumpist push is strongest in the south of the country. In Texas, for example, most counties bordering Mexico saw an increase of 5 to 15 percentage points between the two presidential elections. Maverick County thus went from 44.8% of votes for the Republican candidate in 2020 to 59% in 2024. According to the Texas Tribunethis development completes a transition to the right of these historically Democratic counties.
In Florida, a state won by Donald Trump in the last three presidential elections, certain historically Democratic counties have also switched. This is the case for Miami-Dade, which recorded an increase of more than 9 percentage points between 2020 and 2024, going from 46 to 55.4%. Other notable developments are noted: on the outskirts of New York, in the counties of the Bronx and Queens, the billionaire gained more than 11 points. In these counties where the immigrant population represents more than a third of the inhabitants, Kamala Harris came first but the gap has narrowed significantly since 2020.
In most large cities, the Democratic candidate also benefited from a majority of votes. The map above also allows us to identify a few urban counties, around Atlanta (Georgia) for example, where Donald Trump is losing ground. But overall, an analysis of Washington Post shows that the Republican vote has also progressed remarkably in large cities and their suburbs.
Donald Trump's progress is no longer as marked if we look at the number of votes collected and not the percentages. At the national level, according to provisional data presented by the Associated Press agency on Friday October 8 at 4 p.m., the Republican candidate had collected 73.4 million votes, compared to 74.2 million in 2020. Given that the count is still underway in several states, it is difficult to know whether or not he will exceed his 2020 score. The drop in the Democratic vote, however, is beyond doubt: in 2020, Joe Biden collected 81.3 million votes. Kamala Harris currently has 69.1 million.
In certain counties where Donald Trump's percentage increase is the strongest, we see an increase of only a few hundred votes. This is for example the case in Dimit County, Texas, where the Republican vote increased from 37.8% in 2020 to 48.4% in 2024, but where the candidate garnered barely more than 260 additional votes. . According to the partial results from the New York Timesin nearly 1,000 counties, Donald Trump's score increased in percentage, but fell in number of votes, due to lower participation than in 2020.
