The victory of Donald Trump facing Kamala Harris as the 47th president of UNITED STATES radically transforms the American economic outlook. After a first term from 2017 to 2021, the real estate mogul takes back the reins of the country with an arsenal of protectionist measures that promises to shake up the global trade order.
The new faces of American protectionism
Spearheading the new presidential program, a drastic overhaul of customs tariffs threatens to trigger turbulence on international markets. Foreign goods will be taxed at 10% to 20%, while Chinese products will be subject to surcharges of up to 60%, or even 200% for certain categories. If Trump defends this strategy as a remedy to the trade deficit and an alternative to traditional taxes, the analyzes of Tax Foundation point to alarming repercussions: 684,000 jobs threatened, a decline in GDP of 0.8 points and an additional tax burden of 524 billion dollars annually for American taxpayers. Beyond the figures, this aggressive policy risks inflaming tensions with the Chinealready exacerbated by the electric vehicle war.
The great return of “Made in America”
Industrial reconquest forms the heart of the Trumpian vision, supported by an ambitious tax overhaul. The president-elect plans to deploy special economic zones on federal territory, accompanied by attractive taxation. This offensive strategy particularly targets the automobile industry, Trump aiming to transform German manufacturers into American companies. The tax component provides for the sustainability of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Acta reform costed at 4.8 trillion dollars over a decade. This action plan combines the reduction of corporate tax to 15%, the tax exemption of social security income and overtime, as well as a reduction in the tax pressure on the middle classes.
A perilous budgetary equation
Trump’s economic ambitions chart a hazardous financial trajectory for UNITED STATES. The new president promises to halve energy prices by increasing oil drilling, while positioning the country as the world capital of cryptocurrencies – an announcement which has already propelled bitcoin beyond $74,000. His questioning of the independence of the Federal Reserve adds a layer of uncertainty to the picture. THE Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget figures the total cost of the program between 7,500 and 15,150 billion dollars, an addition which could bring the national debt to 142% of GDP. This budgetary escalation comes at a time when debt has already reached 99% of GDP in 2024, with a projection of 125% for 2035. This tense financial situation confronts the American economy with a delicate balancing act between electoral promises and economic stability.
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