As in 2020, the Democratic camp collected the votes of women and black voters, while Donald Trump stood out among men and the less educated. The president-elect also scored important points within the Hispanic community.
Eight years after his first victory and his accession to the White House, Donald Trump will once again become President of the United States. Coming in first in at least four of the seven key states during the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, the Republican garnered more than the 270 voters needed to win.
To whom does Donald Trump owe his victory? Which voters supported her Democratic rival, Kamala Harris? The Edison Research institute conducted an exit poll for the Reuters news agency on the vote of American voters, based on their gender, age or origin. Although these data are not yet definitive, they offer a first insight into the results of the election.
Women remain more Democratic than men, despite white voters' support for Donald Trump
This is an observation that varies little from one election to another. As in 2020, women mainly turned to the Democratic camp. 54% say they voted for Kamala Harris. A mobilization comparable to that observed four years ago for Joe Biden. For their part, the male electorate mainly lined up behind Donald Trump. In total, 54% of men surveyed by Edison Research supported the Republican candidate, compared to 44% who voted for his rival, details the BBC.
According to an NBC News poll, 20% of women made abortion rights their main concern in this election, compared to 8% of men. The Democratic candidate had made women's rights one of the axes of her campaign and had accused her opponent of wanting to establish a national ban on access to abortion. Donald Trump, for his part, assured that he would veto if Congress adopted “a federal ban on abortion”, but he still maintains vagueness on the subject, even going so far as to present himself as the “protective” women, “whether they like it or not.”
Still, even though women as a whole mostly voted for Kamala Harris, preliminary data suggests that white women tended to support Donald Trump (52%). “In recent presidential elections, white women have always voted more for Republicans. recalls Ludivine Gilli, director of the North American Observatory of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. “The The question that arose this year was whether, given the personality and rhetoric of the Republican candidate, this vote for white women would remain with him.”adds the expert.
Kamala Harris favored by black voters, Donald Trump on the rise among Hispanic voters
Unsurprisingly, white voters were more supportive of Donald Trump, while Kamala Harris won among ethnic minorities. The Republican won over 55% of white voters surveyed, but was largely beaten (12%) by his rival among black voters. As in 2020, more than four in five African-Americans say they voted for the Democratic candidate.
Kamala Harris also benefited from the support of Asian voters (56%) and, to a lesser extent, Hispanic citizens (53%). But “the Democratic advantage in the Latino vote has eroded”observes Ludivine Gilli, who specifies that this “erosion” was already observable during previous presidential elections. Another study conducted by the Associated Press (AP) confirms that more than half of Hispanic voters were won over by the Democrat, a little less than the nearly 60% who supported Joe Biden in 2020.
Conversely, support for Donald Trump increased by 13 points within this electorate, according to Edison Research. According to the first data from the polling institute, the president-elect has mainly gained ground among Latin American men: 54% of them say they voted in his favor (+18 points compared to 2020). And if Kamala Harris retained the advantage among Hispanic women (61%), the Republican also progressed by seven points in this segment of the population. The recent racist remarks of one of his supporters, who described Puerto Rico as“floating island of garbage”, therefore do not seem to have penalized the billionaire.
Kamala Harris wins among young people
The Democratic Party remains in the majority among 18-29 year olds surveyed by Edison Research: 55% say they voted for Kamala Harris, compared to 42% for Donald Trump. However, “we see losses for the Democrats among young people”analyzes Ludivine Gilli. About half of those under 30 voted for Kamala Harris, a little less than the six in ten young people who supported Joe Biden in 2020, the AP study confirms.
The Republican billionaire, for his part, gained six points compared to 2020 within this age group, according to figures from Edison Research. Kamala Harris is also in the majority among 30-44 year olds (53% for the Democrat against 44% for Donald Trump).
The older electorate appears more divided. The Republican camp seems slightly ahead among 45-64 year olds (51% for Donald Trump, 47% for Kamala Harris). Those over 65 are even more divided: 50% of them spoke in favor of Kamala Harris and 49% for Donald Trump.
Donald Trump is popular among the least educated
Among the university graduates surveyed, 57% of them said they voted for the Democratic candidate, compared to 41% for Donald Trump. The Republican rather appealed to non-graduates, 54% of whom voted in his favor, compared to 44% for Kamala Harris. In these two groups, the distribution of votes is rather close to that observed during the 2020 election.
We also observe a similar trend when cross-referencing this data with the gender of voters. “White women without college degrees voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump”while “educated white women overwhelmingly voted for Kamala Harris”, says Ludivine Gilli.
