The Republican has come a long way, less than four years after his defeat against Joe Biden and the assault on the Capitol.
A political resurrection. Republican and populist candidate Donald Trump claimed victory “never seen” in the presidential election against Kamala Harris, Wednesday November 6, even before Wisconsin fell into her hands and sealed her return to the White House. “It’s an exceptional victory for the Americans. A victory which will make America great again (…) We won the popular vote”said the billionaire, from West Palm Beach, Florida, where he awaited the results of the vote.
The image of a defeated Donald Trump leaving the White House two weeks after the assault on the Capitol is well and truly a thing of the past. However, in the eyes of many, this January 20, 2021, he is then destined to become a pariah, he who harangued his supporters this January 6 in Washington to call into question the democratic process. He also refused to go to the inauguration of his successor, Joe Biden, never recognizing the victory of the president-elect.
Nearly two years pass, and the mid-term elections in November 2022 do not really mark the triumphant return of the deposed president, who dreams of revenge. The results of the Republicans, who were hoping for a red wave, are mixed, particularly those of Trumpist candidates. Above all, an alternative is emerging within the “Grand Old Party”: the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, emerged triumphant from these midterms. The party's rising star? “He campaigned with a program similar to that of Trump, but with a more respectable face,” emphasized Ludivine Gilli, director of the North America Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, at the start of the year to franceinfo.
However, the DeSantis option doesn't hold up for long. Donald Trump's hold on the Republican Party remains strong. The billionaire's style has not changed, excesses and conspiracy are never far away. It is still a hit: ahead of the primaries for the presidential election, Donald Trump is widening the gap with his ultraconservative rival, even in April 2023, at the time of the announcement of his first indictment in the Stormy Daniels affair. The former president is accused of having falsified documents to hide the reimbursement of a payment of 130,000 dollars to the actress and porn director, a way to buy his silence. In the polls, voting intentions for the accused climb, from 47 to 54% in ten days.
Indicted in other cases, notably for “conspiracy against the American state”, Donald Trump castigates a politicized justice – and the Republican apparatus follows. “It’s expensive to go against a popular candidate,” pointed out, at the beginning of 2024, the political scientist Hans Noel, of Georgetown University, to franceinfo.
“Republican leaders have not done this because Trump has enough personal appeal. His supporters love him for who he is, they would follow him even if he left the Republican Party. The movement does not want to lose that electorate.”
Hans Noel, American political scientistat the start of the year at franceinfo
A moment reflects this alignment of the collective behind a single man. On August 23, 2023, eight Republicans competing in the primaries face off in a televised debate. HAS the question of whether Donald Trump should be able to return to the Oval Office, even if he is convictedsix candidates raise their hands. Only two are opposed to the idea.
The numerous court cases also do not have much effect on public opinion. “One might wonder if his multiple trials have not contributed to increasing Donald Trump's popularity. Because he appeared as a sort of victim of the Democrats' desire to lower their main rival.analyzed the historian André Kaspi on Wednesday in Franceinfo live.
The former president crushes his competitors and wins the Republican primaries. The war machine is launched towards the White House. Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law, takes over as chairman of the Republican National Committee with Michael Whatley. Chris LaCivita, another close friend of the billionaire, becomes its executive head.
“He is untouchable, everything seems to slip past him”summarized Lauric Henneton, lecturer at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, at the start of the year. His aura among his supporters grew further when he narrowly escaped an assassination attempt on July 13 in Butler (Pennsylvania). Images showing Donald Trump, with a bloody face, shaking his fist and shouting “Fight” (“Fight”) travel around the world.
Two days later, in Milwaukee, Donald Trump appeared triumphant on the first day of the Republican convention in Wisconsin. His former adversaries in the party take turns on stage to pledge allegiance. “Donald Trump was demonized, he was prosecuted, and he almost lost his life. We cannot let him down”says Ron DeSantis. The American right is behind its champion, convinced of his victory on November 5.
The populist candidate succeeds in convincing in a context very different from that of 2020. At the time, the management of the Covid-19 pandemic was the first concern of the voters surveyed, recalls Associated Press. Now, nearly 40 percent see the economy as the most serious problem facing the country. Immigration comes second, according to polls from the American press agency. Two subjects hammered out by the Republican over the weeks, from one key state to another.
Donald Trump has the advantage of no longer being in power. His populist speeches and his attacks against the Democratic administration are effective, despite a strategy called into question by an unexpected adversary. The attacks on Joe Biden's age and health are no longer relevant, since the president gives up running after a catastrophic debate against Donald Trump in June.
Faced with Kamala Harris, the Republican's campaign takes a sexist turn. He describes his rival as a “mentally disabled”a “harpy”implies that she owes her career to sexual favors. Women's rights become a campaign topic. The Democrat defends the right to abortion and recalls that Donald Trump does everything to hinder women's freedom. The person concerned affirms, on October 31, that he will protect women “whether they like it or not”.
These outings constitute so many signals sent to its male, even masculinist, electorate, according to Jackson Katz, educator and author of books on masculinity in politics in the United States: “We saw a spectacular recovery of young men by the Republican Party, and Donald Trump in particular, because no one really cared about them”he explains.
“The Democratic Party is just realizing that it hasn't targeted young men enough, leaving a void that Republicans have stepped into.”
Jackson Katz, essayistat franceinfo
These speeches fit more generally into the “vision trumpiste”estimates Paul Johnson, professor of communications at the University of Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), to AFP. It consists of describing a world “wicked”where the “Real Americans must be willing to fight for their place, to tell unpleasant and racist truths, and if necessary to use violence”. In fact, Donald Trump is threatening everything, promising to contest the results if they are not favorable to him. Weapons and aggression abound in the candidate's speeches, for example when he suggests pointing guns at Liz Cheney, one of the rare Republican figures to fight him.
His conspiratorial refrains about electoral fraud also reach part of his electorate. “We are Americans, we are soldiers of freedom. We must not be provoked, we will defend the Constitution anyway. And if that means taking up arms, so be it”assured for example one of his supporters in Arizona to franceinfo.
Above all, Donald Trump is taking advantage of Vice-President Kamala Harris' failure to distance herself from his administration. Gold Joe Biden “is seen as responsible for inflation”, Clifford Young pointed out in September, director of opinion surveys for Ipsos in the United States, with franceinfo.
“Donald Trump still dominates the fundamentals, that is to say he is seen as stronger on the main subject: inflation.”
Clifford Young, director of polling at Ipsos in the United Statesin September at franceinfo
Nearly seven in ten voters believe that the economic situation is bad in the United States, according to a poll released on Tuesday, relayed by ABC News. Nearly half – 45% – even confide that their personal situation has deteriorated over the last four years. Such a level has not been reached since 2008.
The economy was thus the primary driving force behind the vote of Estevan Manuel, 28, in favor of Donald Trump. “Things were cheap and interest rates were low with Trump. At the time, I earned a good living. relates this small business manager, resident of Phoenix, Arizona. The young Hispanic man also supports the very harsh, often xenophobic words of his candidate on illegal immigration. However, her grandmother emigrated from Mexico to the United States. “She arrived legally,” replies the American.
Donald Trump's speech bore fruit, including among electorates that seemed far from certain. As CNN notes, Latin American men for the first time chose the Republican rather than the person opposite him.
Support for Democrats also fell slightly among the black American electorate, compared to 2020. According to AP, around 80% of black voters voted for Kamala Harris, compared to almost 90% four years ago. Young people also seem to have less support for the vice-president: a little more than 40% of them preferred Donald Trump, specifies AP.
Donald Trump could therefore parade on Wednesday, he who even won the popular vote for the first time, ahead of Kamala Harris by several million votes nationally. He could even benefit from all the powers, since the Senate has switched to the Republican side and the House of Representatives seems to be taking the same path. Enough to enable him to implement his promise made in December 2023: “They ask me if I will be a dictator. I say no…except for the first day.”
