Donald Trump’s projected victory in the 2024 presidential election may signal a tough road ahead for high-skilled immigrants, especially those on H-1B visas and their families. While Trump has floated the idea of “stapling a green card” to “international students”, his prior administration’s record suggests stricter immigration measures are more likely.
During his first term, Trump oversaw a substantial increase in H-1B visa denials and Requests for Evidence (RFEs), leading to heightened uncertainty for high-skilled workers. From 2016 to 2020, H-1B denial rates averaged around 18%, compared to only 3.2% under the Biden administration. Similarly, the rate of RFEs nearly tripled under Trump, from around 12% to a peak of 34%.
Trump Administration 2.0 might make the process more rigorous, possibly driving denial rates back up, which would make it harder for international students and high-skilled immigrants to secure or maintain employment.
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Trump 2.0 could spell trouble for H-1B spouses and OPT programs
H-4 visa holders—spouses of H-1B workers—are also expected to face challenges. The Obama-era rule that allowed H-4 spouses to work was previously targeted for elimination by Trump officials. In 2018, former USCIS Director Francis Cissna confirmed plans to “remove H-4 dependent spouses from the class of aliens eligible for employment authorization.” While this rule wasn’t ultimately rescinded, legal experts anticipate renewed attempts to restrict H-4 work authorization, either by removing it altogether or by making the process more burdensome. For example, the Trump administration previously added redundant steps that extended processing times for H-4 employment authorization documents (EADs), turning a process that typically takes just minutes into one that could last a year.
Optional Practical Training (OPT), a program that allows international students to work in the U.S. for 12 months (with an additional 24-month extension for STEM graduates), might also face scrutiny. Stephen Miller, a senior advisor in the Trump administration, previously tried to restrict OPT and eliminate the STEM extension. Though he faced resistance from within the administration, Miller’s influence could resurface in a second Trump term, possibly leading to more restrictive OPT policies.
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Forbes cited Cornell Law professor Stephen Yale-Loehr, who observed that any restrictions on post-graduation work authorization would make the US a less attractive destination for international students, whose work aspirations often hinge on OPT or H-1B visa pathways.
Wage requirements for H-1B holders and Trump’s green card promise
Trump sdeclared in June that he will grant automatic green cards to all US college graduates if elected. “Let me just tell you that it’s so sad when we lose people from Harvard, MIT, from the greatest schools and lesser schools that are phenomenal schools also,” he stated in a podcast.
“But what I want to do, and what I will do is if you graduate from a college, I think you should get, automatically as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country, and that includes junior colleges too. Anybody graduates from a college, you go in there for two years or four years, if you graduate, or you get a doctorate degree from a college, you should be able to stay in this country.”
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Notably, in 2020, Trump’s Department of Labor proposed a rule that sharply raised the minimum salaries for H-1B visa holders and green card applicants, requiring employers to pay over $200,000 in certain roles in some cities, regardless of the candidate’s experience level. A judge ultimately blocked this rule, but Trump officials could pursue similar policies again, potentially pricing many foreign professionals out of the US job market.
