(BFM Bourse) – The CAC 40 begins in the green this Wednesday as the Republican candidate is close to winning the American presidential election.
The Paris Stock Exchange takes note of the now almost certain outcome of the American presidential election. In the first exchanges this Wednesday morning, the CAC 40, its flagship index, rose 0.68% to 7,457.25 points.
Donald Trump is almost guaranteed to return for a second term in the White House. The Republican candidate won three key states, namely Georgia, North Carolina and especially Pennsylvania, considered decisive for the election. According to a count published by CNN, Donald Trump currently has 266 electors against 188 for Kamala Harris, knowing that 270 electors are needed. In a public statement from his headquarters in Florida, Donald Trump has already claimed an “unprecedented victory”.
The Republican camp has also regained control of the Senate, one of the two chambers of the American Congress, from the Democrats. The House of Representatives is still in play.
Certain French stocks would benefit
In absolute terms, a victory for Donald Trump is rather favorable to the stock markets, because the Republican candidate intends to take tax measures favorable to businesses. The businessman plans, for example, to lower corporate tax to 15% compared to 21% at present.
In a comprehensive study published at the beginning of October, Oddo BHF listed several listed French groups which could benefit from Donald Trump's measures. Publicis and Sodexo, through their significant exposure to the United States, would benefit from the reduction in corporate taxes.
Above all, the CAC 40 is driven by the fall of the euro, the euro zone currency collapsing by 1.8% against the dollar this Wednesday. However, a decline in the European currency is synonymous with easier exports for many CAC 40 companies.
This fall in the euro is due to the jump in the dollar. The greenback is appreciating because Donald Trump's program is considered inflationary, which is causing a rise in bond yields. However, higher American rates are favorable to the dollar.
However, the market fears that Trump's election will also result in a resurgence of significant trade tensions, with the Republican candidate planning to increase customs duties.
“Fears of an aggressive trade policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly due to changes in NATO policy, are weighing on the European indices,” writes Saxo Banque.
It is also due to these tensions that the Chinese indices closed in the red this Wednesday. The CSI 300, which brings together the large capitalizations of the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets, lost 0.5%. Conversely, the Nikkei 225 jumped 2.6%, driven by the fall of the yen against the dollar (-1.4%).
Julien Marion – ©2024 BFM Bourse
