If American voters decided between the two presidential candidates more clearly and more quickly than expected, French luxury real estate professionals remained quite cautious about the impact of this election on their market. It is true that America's wealthy clientele is quite divided from an ideological point of view. “The clientele in Florida is often Trumpist while in New York the Democratic sensibility generally prevailsunderlines Thibault de Saint-Vincent, president of Barnes who spends 4 months a year in the United States and has just returned from New York. The period is not very dynamic, but I doubt the election result will have a big impact on the market. What really matters are interest rates.” He believes that in the short term, these should not vary in the United States, given the degree of independence of the Fed.
Same circumspection for Eric Donnet, general director of Féau. “Americans represent half of our foreign customers, he emphasizes, they are therefore very important but distinguishing the specific impact that the election of one candidate rather than another would have seems delicate to me.” For his part, Sébastien Kuperfis at the head of the Féau network believes that with the election of Trump “frightened and/or disgusted democrats could choose to come into exile in France”. However, he has noted a stronger positive effect with his British clientele since Labor came to power and increased taxes. A development which has pushed English people but also international buyers traditionally oriented towards London to consider Paris. And if Kamala Harris was elected, he was counting on this fear of taxes to win new customers.
Paradoxical situation
“The situation risks being quite paradoxical if Trump wins, underlines Alexander Kraft, CEO of the Sotheby's International Realty France network. The wealthiest clientele looks at Trump with kindness, believing that he is favorable to business. And at the same time from an international point of view, the return of Trump could worry the markets and lead to a very volatile situation, depending on his impulsive decisions.” In the meantime, the first impact of this election should be the end of a certain wait-and-see attitude. “As is the case for the French, Americans are always hesitant to buy in the pre-election period, explains Alexander Kraft. This clientele had been present in France for months and had made a number of visits but these files did not materialize. It is only in the last fortnight that the most impatient have taken the plunge and sales promises have been signed again.”
A resumption of activity in sight rather well received by professionals even if the fear of international tensions remains strong. Between Donald Trump's impulsive decisions, the management of the Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian issues, not to mention customs duties, there are numerous subjects that can lastingly undermine confidence in the future. And more than any other sector, real estate needs this faith in a serene future.
France
