These will be high-voltage presidential elections. In the decisive states, the results of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be close to each other. The Trump camp is already questioning the reliability of the elections – but of course only in the event that Harris wins. A legal battle over the notes and counts is expected, and there are fears of unrest.
1. When will we know who won?
At 1 a.m. our time, the first polling stations in the United States will close, including in the swing state of Georgia. An hour later, 70 percent of the votes could have already been counted. The offices in North Carolina, also important, close at half past two. In Pennsylvania and sixteen other states, that’s 2 a.m. our time. In the hours that follow, they will close further from east to west, with the last being Hawaii and Alaska (at 7 a.m.).
In 2016, it quickly became clear that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton. On the night after election day, at 8:45 a.m. Belgian time, he was declared the winner. But in 2020, it took until four days after election day for almost all media to declare Joe Biden the winner.
The News Agency Associated Press (AP), with its 170 years of experience, is widely seen as the beacon in “calling” (or assigning) states to candidates, which then culminates in the overall winner. Did four years ago AP so that only the Saturday after election Tuesday. “But now Election Day is more like Election Week as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots, not to mention the legal challenges,” writes AP itself in its election guide. So it may take a while.
2. Which states are decisive?
The American president is not elected directly, but through a tiered system with an electoral college consisting of electors. There are 538 electoral votes spread across the fifty states and Washington DC. Whoever gets 270 becomes president. In most states it is almost certain who the electoral votes go to. But that is not the case in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They account for 93 electoral votes. They decide who goes to the White House.
“North Carolina could be the first swing state to be assigned to a candidate, because most voters there vote on the same day and mail-in ballots must reach their destination by Election Day,” the newspaper analyzes Financial Times. “Georgia is also counting quickly, but the razor-thin margin of 11,779 votes in 2020 led to a manual recount. The state was awarded to Biden only two weeks later.” The results of Arizona and Nevada will probably become clear last, possibly even thirteen days after election day.
3. What partial results can indicate the outcome?
Because North Carolina and Georgia are on the East Coast (where voting takes place earliest) and the count would be done quickly be able to expired, guess AP to keep an eye on those two. “They are the first battleground states that can give an idea of what awaits us.” At a lower level, the results from (sub)urban areas in the Southeast and the Industrial North, such as in the state of Pennsylvania, may be indicative.
4. Why will these be historic elections?
Harris’ campaign team itself puts little emphasis on it, but for the first time a woman – of mixed black and South Asian origin – could become president of the US. If Trump wins, a convicted criminal will move into the White House. At least two other criminal cases are pending against Trump.
5. Where are Trump and Harris following the election?
“Trump will likely spend the first hours of the day in Michigan, where he will organize a final rally,” he said AP. “He plans to spend the rest of the day in Florida. He is expected to vote there himself.”
“Harris will attend an ‘Election night’ party at Howard University in Washington. There she graduated in economics and political science in 1986. The rest of her program is still unknown.”
