Breezy weather brings a chance of showers into Alabama’s forecast

Spotty showers will make Election Day rainy at times, but there will be a much better chance of a good soaking by Friday and Saturday. Check the video forecast for the latest.

ELECTION DAY FORECAST

A cold front moving into Alabama on Tuesday will stir up a few showers, and the stiff east-southeast wind will keep on blowing.

Occasional passing showers are expected, but they won’t last long or significantly impact the day.

Here are some snapshots of when and where to expect the showers throughout the day.

If you anticipate being outdoors in a polling place line for more than 15 to 20 minutes, it would be wise to bring a rain jacket or umbrella just in case one of those pesky showers occurs.

RELENTLESS NOVEMBER BREEZE

It has been breezy the past few days. Birmingham’s peak wind gusts topped out around 30 miles per hour on Sunday and Monday. We will be in the same boat on Tuesday because of the contrast between a strong low to the west and a strong high to the east.

We will have a familiar, persistent 10 to 20 mph breeze all day Tuesday. Occasional gusts could approach 30 mph for a third-straight day.

WARMTH CONTINUES, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE

November started with unusual warmth, with temperatures running about 12 degrees above the climatological average and we won’t see a significant chance in the warmth through the rest of the work week.

The average high for this time of year is close to 70 and we will hold well above that through Friday.

This warm weather sticks with us all week, but we can expect a few opportunities for rain:

• Some spotty, light rain on Tuesday (Election Day)
• A low chance of isolated, light showers again on Wednesday and Thursday.
• Potentially impactful rain for Friday and the upcoming weekend.

Wednesday’s rain will be mainly focused to the southeast of the Birmingham area.

According to Alabama’s State Climatologist Dr. John Christy, most of the state is in exceptional drought and needs roughly a foot or more of rainfall to recover from the intensifying drought.

The rain this week will not be a drought-buster, but it is a start. Rain from Friday into the weekend could have a bigger impact especially over North and Central Alabama.

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea ahead of its impacts on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. It will likely become a hurricane by midweek.

This system will impact Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Tropical storm warnings cover Jamaica, and hurricane warnings surround the Cayman Islands. Heavy rain could cause local flooding and mudslides.

Rafael will likely become a Category 2 hurricane as it impacts Cuba and crosses from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane watches and tropical storm watches cover much of Cuba. Tropical storm watches now cover the Florida Keys. Once in the Gulf, it will run into drier air and wind shear, weakening the system into a tropical storm.

Here are some of the expectations as of now:

• We do not expect this to be like Helene or Milton in the Gulf. It will not have the same explosive environment that caused those storms to grow so intense.
  
• The ultimate track after Thursday and Friday is very unclear as upper air winds increase over the South. The increased “shear” will prevent a powerful storm and could cause some erratic movement resulting in significant forecast changes – especially for inland areas of Alabama.
• If the storm moves far enough west before the shear gets involved, it would be a bigger rain producer for Alabama this weekend. If the shear catches it earlier than currently expected, it will mean very little rain for most of Alabama on Saturday and Sunday.

Regardless of a coastal Alabama landfall, this tropical system will cause a high risk of rip currents for the beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

Alabama’s Friday and weekend outlook contain a lot of uncertainty, and it all boils down to what happens with the potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

For now, we will tag both Saturday and Sunday with a 40 to 50% chance of meaningful rain. A more westward path of that system will lead to an inch or more of rain on Saturday and Sunday. An eastward path would mean a lot less (if anything at all).

Check back as we refine the forecast over the next few days and we can be a lot more specific about how rain may impact the weekend weather.

Farther down the road, the following week looks a bit cooler. Temperatures return closer to the averages for this time of year, and a cold front could bring in another round of rain and storms around November 13-15.

For the latest Birmingham weather information and Central Alabama’s certified most accurate forecast, watch WVTM 13 News.

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