Defense: should France bet everything on Romania?

This historic deployment, coupled with the Romanian presidential election scheduled for November 24 and December 8, creates a window of opportunity to sustainably deepen the Franco-Romanian defense relationship, believe some observers. “ While the French army plans to temporarily increase its troops in Romania to 5,000 soldiers, or a brigade, it would be interesting if it displayed the ambition to maintain this level of presence permanently », thus estimated, in a column published in the World on October 17, Pierre Haroche, lecturer in European and international politics at the Catholic University of Lille, and Romain Le Quiniou, co-founder of Euro Créative, a think-tank dedicated to Central and Eastern Europe.

For the two signatories of the platform, Paris would thus send a clear message on its commitment to the security of the eastern flank of NATO. “At a time when France has abandoned the idea of ​​stationing significant forces in its African bases, Romania would in some way take over by becoming the new outpost of the French armythey wrote. A French brigade in Romania would be a counterpart to the brigade that Germany is installing in Lithuania, thus ensuring a substantial presence of these two large European countries at two key points, north and south of the front line. »

Attractive on paper, the idea of ​​a change of gear in the Franco-Romanian military relationship faces numerous obstacles. The first pitfall lies in a certain gap, between Paris and Bucharest, on the priority nature of an alliance of this type. “It happens that the French want to do more and faster than their Romanian partners, summary Elie Tenenbaum, director of the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), and author of a note published last June on France, the Russian threat and the defense of the “Eastern Flank” of the Europe. The French army, accustomed to a high level of operational activity, tends to push for very frequent maneuvers. However, tactical cultures remain quite different. We must be careful that the French proposals are not seen as arrogance towards their Romanian partner. If France wants to deepen its relationship with Romania, it will have to agree to go at its own pace. »

The second obstacle lies in the recent, rather disastrous results of French arms sales in Romania. Over the past ten years, competitions involving French groups have multiplied, as have disillusionments. Act 1: in 2015, Airbus Helicopters laid the first stone in Ghimbav, near Brasov, for a future assembly plant for the H215, a sort of low-cost version of the Super Puma heavy helicopter. The project is attractive: Airbus agrees to set up this site in Romania in exchange for a future large order for H215M, the military version of the aircraft, from Bucharest. Problem: if the factory is indeed inaugurated in September 2016, in the presence of François Hollande, the famous order will never be signed. Airbus Helicopters ultimately sold the brand new factory to Premium Aerotec, one of the Airbus subsidiaries specializing in aerostructures (fuselage elements). Bucharest finally ordered two H215Ms in January for its navy. This is six times less than the framework contract awarded by Bucharest to the American Lockheed Martin for Black Hawk helicopters.

Act 2 takes place in 2019. After tough competition against the Italian Fincantieri and the Dutch Damen, Naval Group wins a call for tenders from the Romanian navy for four Gowind corvettes of 2,500 tonnes, a contract worth 1.2 billion euros. Appeals filed by rejected candidates delay the signing of the contract for several years. Inflation having soared in the meantime, Naval Group requested an update of the price, which the Romanian administration refused. The agreement is canceled by Bucharest in August 2023.

Act 3 is currently being played out. Bucharest launched, in the spring of 2023, a competition for the purchase of 1,059 tactical light armored vehicles. The French Arquus was among the favorites, with its Sherpa, sold in particular to the French special forces. The conditions of the call for tenders, “ absolutely untenable » according to a source close to the negotiations, finally led the French group, as well as the American Oshkosh, to give up making an offer. It is the Turkish Otokar which is in the process of winning, with its Cobra 2, on this contract estimated at 934 million dollars.

Beyond these French disillusionments, the facts are stubborn: almost all the major contracts recently announced by Romania were entrusted to manufacturers outside the European Union. Bucharest notably signed contracts for 32 F-35A fighters (Lockheed Martin), 54 American Abrams tanks, 54 South Korean K9 Thunder howitzers. Romania also ordered, in 2023, 18 Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. Discussions are also underway for the purchase of hundreds of Korean K-2 tanks.

And the French industrialists? They came to nothing, or almost. Arquus has almost given up on the light armored vehicle contract, promised to the Turkish Otokar. The contract for Naval Group's Gowind corvettes has been cancelled. Negotiations for the purchase of two Scorpene submarines are almost at a standstill. “There is a lifeline still open, but no intensity in the discussions”assures a source close to the negotiations. The Mistral 3 missile order (MBDA), once mentioned, has still not materialized.

Even in the competition for short-range ground-to-air defense systems, launched at the end of 2023 and estimated at $2 billion, MBDA, which offers its VL Mica, does not seem to be in pole position. The call for tenders pits the European group against the German Diehl (Iris-T System), the Korean Hanwha, the American-Norwegian Nasams system (proposed by Raytheon) and the Israeli Rafael. “There have been many attempts, and many failures, sums up Elie Tenenbaum, from Ifri. This situation has created a certain bitterness among French industrialists, who have difficulty understanding the Romanian decision-making system. »

These repeated failures are all the more difficult to swallow as France does not spare its investments within the framework of the Aigle mission. The cost of the initial deployment, in 2022, reached 700 million euros in 2022, according to Senator LR Dominique de Legge. The additional annual cost of the operation is estimated at 494 million euros by the Court of Auditors, this sum being financed by an interministerial effort. “If we want to deepen the Franco-Romanian relationship, we will need a minimum of reciprocity”warns a source familiar with the matter.

The French camp is in any case optimistic, despite recent disappointments. “Some of our projects have, in fact, not been successful in recent years, most of the time either for legal reasons or for budgetary reasonsrecognizes Nicolas Warnery, French ambassador to Romania. Others will succeed, I am sure, because the Romanian authorities have repeated, on several occasions in recent months, that their objective is to strengthen their arms industry, which is precisely what we are proposing to help them do. to do. »

To restart the machine, some are calling for changing the rules of the game. They are pleading, behind the scenes, for the signing of a government to government agreement (“G to G”) between France and Romania, which would allow Bucharest to enter into contracts with French manufacturers over the counter, bypassing calls for tenders, as Greece did for its purchases of Rafale and FDI frigates. Such an agreement could notably make it possible to “ fish out » the French Arquus on the contract for a thousand tactical armored vehicles, estimate certain sources. Romania would still have to be a requestor. The presidential election at the end of the month should make things clearer.