Across the Atlantic, seven states are considered key to winning the US presidential election on November 5. Among them, several states in the northeast hit by deindustrialization and several states in the south of the country.
Seven states to determine the destiny of an entire country. This Tuesday, November 5, the day of the American presidential election, several states will be particularly scrutinized: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin.
Nicknamed the swing statesthese key states or pivotal states are considered particularly crucial in the race for the White House because their result is given as uncertain, unlike a California acquired for many years by the Democratic camp for example.
The very particular American electoral system also plays a role in the importance given to these few states. In fact, it follows the rule of winner takes all allowing the candidate who came first, even if only narrowly, to win all the major voters of the State in question. The candidates are therefore strategically focusing their efforts on the seven states that can tip the scales in their favor.
• Pennsylvania
It is in Pennsylvania that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris chose to hold their last campaign meetings this Monday, a sign of the significant desire it arouses. In question, the high number of electors, 19, which it allows to win.
“It’s a capital state that will be carefully scrutinized,” assures Alexis Pichard, professor of American civilization at the University of Paris-Nanterre, to BFMTV.com.
Traditionally Democratic since the 1990s, this Midwestern state voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in 2016, giving a valuable victory in the race for the White House to the businessman who later became president that year.
Located in the northeastern United States, Pennsylvania is part of the rust bell (rust belt), nickname given to the northeastern states of the country hit by deindustrialization. The population is very divided with, on the one hand, a largely Democratic electorate located in large cities, such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and made up of many African-Americans and, on the other hand, a traditionally Republican white rural electorate, to which Added to this is a working-class electorate not insensitive to the pro-employment discourse supported by Donald Trump.
The outcome of the election in this state is one of the most uncertain. The latest polls do not clearly separate the two candidates, given within the margin of error with less than a point difference between them.
• Arizona
With a Republican tradition, Arizona, however, placed Joe Biden in the lead by a very narrow margin, 0.3 points, during the last presidential election, in 2020, against Donald Trump.
This southern state has the particularity of sharing a border with Mexico, so questions related to immigration policies are central there. For Aurore Portet, professor at Sciences Po Lyon and specialist in American politics, the vote will be decided in particular on this subject.
Access to voluntary termination of pregnancy (abortion) should be the other major issue in the vote in Arizona. For Alexis Pichard, “the issue of abortion gave the keys to Joe Biden in 2020 and to the Democrats during the midterms (the mid-term elections in 2022 Editor’s note), thanks to the vote of women” in this state.
While the right to abortion has no longer been guaranteed at the federal level since 2022 and Kamala Harris is emphasizing her desire to defend this right if she becomes president, abortion could have a particularly significant influence on the presidential election.
•Le Michigan
Great Lakes State, Michigan is, after Pennsylvania, one of the swing states the biggest providers of electors, since it allows the candidate who came first to obtain 15. It is also the location of Donald Trump’s very last meeting on Monday evening.
Very divided, Michigan has, since 2008, voted mainly for the candidate ultimately elected president, whether Republican or Democrat. Will the situation happen again this year? The latest polls currently give the two candidates with a very small gap, located within the margin of error.
Michigan has the specificity of having a large Arab-Muslim community, of around 250,000 people, which the two candidates are competing for. However, the speech given by Kamala since October 7, rather favorable to Israel while condemning the strikes in Gaza, could cost the Democrat points with this population. “This in-between position is insufficient” for this electorate, assures Alexis Pichard.
Enough to swing Michigan to the Republican side? Not so sure, while the researcher recalls that Donald Trump also adopts a generally pro-Israeli discourse and that he was notably at the origin of Muslim tires when he was president in 2017, this executive order imposed entry restrictions into the United States especially for Muslim-majority countries. “Ultimately, it is difficult to predict the behavior (of the Arab-Muslim electorate) in the voting booth,” believes Alexis Pichard.
• North Carolina
Alone swing state having placed Donald Trump in the lead in 2020, with 1.3 points ahead of his rival, North Carolina voted predominantly Republican in the last elections. The only exception was the 2008 election, which saw Barack Obama enter the White House.
Despite this notable preference for Grand Old Party In recent years, North Carolina has been seen as likely to swing Democratic this year. In question, its “demographic renewal” linked to the “attractiveness” of its large cities and which sees the arrival of a rather democratic population, explains Aurore Portet to BFMTV.com. Enough to give good hope to the former prosecutor of winning there on November 5.
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Additionally, North Carolina was hit hard by Hurricane Helen in September. As the government’s handling of this disaster comes under heavy criticism, some residents may decide to turn away from Kamala Harris. The Republicans are in any case trying to take advantage of the situation by increasing the number of false accusations directed at the executive on the subject in recent weeks.
• Georgia
Like North Carolina, Georgia has a Republican tradition, but it too is experiencing a renewal of its population which is changing the political balance in recent years.
“Atlanta has become the demographic capital (of Georgia, editor’s note) with a black, urban, educated population, largely won over to the Democratic camp,” explains Aurore Portet.
A sign of this development, Joe Biden won in Georgia in 2020, with 12,000 votes more than Donald Trump. “The mobilization of the black electorate was a decisive factor in 2020 and 2022 (for the midterms Editor’s note),” maintains Alexis Pichard, assuring that, for the candidates, “it will be difficult to do without” this electorate again this year. On condition, however, that abstention, often high among this segment of the population, is not too high.
Despite this demographic change, Georgia also still has “a largely Republican rural population”, according to Aurore Portet. As a result, according to this specialist in the United States, Georgia is today a “state split in two”. Especially since “young black men are not necessarily going to vote for Kamala Harris, because she is a woman” and are therefore not won over to the Democratic camp today, she maintains.
• Le Wisconsin
Birthplace of the Republican Party, Wisconsin has voted more Democratic in recent years. He even overwhelmingly chose Barack Obama in 2008, arriving with nearly 14 points ahead of his Republican opponent.
The results were closer, however, in the last elections. Wisconsin gave the advantage to Donald Trump in 2016, before Joe Biden won in 2020, each time following the national trend. A sign of the importance that the Republicans attach to it, Wisconsin was the location of their major convention last July.
Birthplace of the Harley Davidson, Wisconsin is affected by deindustrialization like several states in the Midwest, including Pennsylvania and Michigan which voted Republican in 2016 and Democratic in 2020. It remains to be seen whether these three states will vote once again. concert on November 5, potentially offering victory to one or the other candidate.
• The Nevada
Nevada is probably the least talked about key state in this presidential campaign. In question, the low number of electors that it allows to win, 6, the lowest total for a pivotal state. The Nevada cannot, however, be neglected by the candidates, the election being able to be decided by a few major voters.
Since 2004, Nevada has always placed a Democrat in the lead in each presidential election, but the Republicans hope this time to win in particular by attracting Latinos who represent around 20% of the state’s population. The recent controversy sparked by a comedian who, during a Donald Trump rally, compared Puerto Rico to a “floating island of garbage”, could however turn this electorate away from the Republican camp.
To convince residents, Donald Trump adopts a pro-employment speech which finds a particularly favorable response in Nevada. In fact, the state suffered greatly from the closure of hotels and casinos in Las Vegas during the Covid-19 pandemic. Even today, the unemployment rate there is particularly high compared to the rest of the country (5.6% in September).
Less than a week before the vote, the two candidates are less than a point apart in voting intentions. In Nevada, as at the federal level, the election promises to be particularly uncertain. “You have to expect twists and turns until the end,” warns Alexis Pichard.
