Some experts question the trends shown by polls of suspicious “similarity” in their eyes.
AFP
Polls show an extremely close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and yet experts warn that in the end, the gap between the two candidates could be much greater than expected.
According to the opinion polls considered the most serious, the Democrat and the Republican are in a mini-handkerchief in each key state likely to swing the vote on Tuesday. Thus, Monday afternoon, the poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight gives Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied at 47.8% in Pennsylvania, almost tied at 47.4 against 47.7% in Nevada or even just one percentage point difference in Wisconsin, Michigan or North Carolina.
Such neck and neck does not convince everyone. “In fact, the state polls show not only an extraordinarily close race, but also an implausibly close one,” said Joshua Clinton, professor of political science at Vanderbilt University.
Reputation problem
In a study published this week by NBC, this polling specialist questions the “similarity” of the results – to a few decimal places – of available opinion surveys, suggesting that it is perhaps the pollsters and not the voters which are at the origin of this almost unanimity.
“A cautious pollster who gets a five-point margin in a close race may choose to adjust his results to match what other polls show, for fear that his particular poll will damage his reputation,” he explains. . It must be said that polling institutes are on the defensive, faced with financial costs and increasing difficulties in reaching voters, in the age of smartphones with their call filtering.
Polls contradicted in 2016 and 2020
And the experience of recent American presidential elections does not lead us to unreservedly endorse what they predict. The pollsters were indeed wrong both in 2016 (victory of Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton) and in 2020 (defeat of Donald Trump against Joe Biden).
The first time, by under-representing the category of “white people without a university degree” among the voters who gave victory to the Republican. The second time, despite corrective measures taken, again underestimated the Trump vote, while overestimating the Biden vote.
“Herd instinct”
It would take just one such error for the seven key states to be won on Tuesday by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, a hypothesis that no one can rule out. Out of a total of 538 electors, the Republican would then win 312, or the Democrat 319, that is to say well above the equality threshold (269).
Questioned by AFP, W. Joseph Campbell, professor at American University in Washington, confirms that he wonders “if the pollsters are not dressing up their data a little too much, to align themselves with the results of others.” “It’s a difficult phenomenon to prove but suspected, it’s called the herd instinct,” he emphasizes. Before mentioning another famous precedent, that of the 1980 presidential election.
“All the polls showed a very close race between President Jimmy Carter and Republican Ronald Reagan. And Reagan ended up winning by almost an electoral tidal wave, by almost 10 percentage points. “I’m not saying it’s going to happen again in 2024, but it’s something to keep in mind.”
(afp)
