These Demographics Could Decide Tomorrow’s Trump-Harris Race In The 7 Swing States

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are nearly tied in all seven swing states on the eve of Election Day—where they’re tasked with courting a diverse coalition of voters with unique priorities and shifting political leanings.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (R) shakes hands with former … [+] US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

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Key Facts

A decline in Republican-leaning non-college educated white voters coupled with a rise in college-educated white voters who are increasingly Democratic could benefit Harris in the three “blue wall” swing states.

In North Carolina and Georgia, growing diversity, along with a leftward shift among suburban voters could also help her—though Republicans have a natural edge in both states.

Increases in the share of Latino voters—who have increasingly veered right—and independents—who typically lean Republican—in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona and Nevada could aid Trump.

Polls show a near-tie in all seven swing states, with Trump leading slightly in Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, and Harris ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to statistician Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.

North Carolina: Suburbanites Shift Left As Rural Voters Stick With Trump

A growing population of voters with bachelor’s degrees—who typically back Democrats—coupled with the leftward shift among suburban voters is widely credited for North Carolina’s newfound swing state status after years of being a reliably red state.

The state also has a significant share of Black voters who are more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the county, though Harris is still polling below President Joe Biden’s 2020 thresholds with the demographic. Those losses are somewhat offset by growing support for Harris among suburban supporters, about 51% of whom support her, on par with the national average, compared to 39% who backed Biden, according to a Five Thirty Eight analysis of polling trends.

At the same time, the state has more rural voters than all of the other swing states, and these areas have become increasingly Republican since 2008, according to Five Thirty Eight.

Pennsylvania: Philadelphia’s “collar Counties” Could Decide The Election

The share of non-college educated white voters—a key Trump demographic—has declined in every swing state since 2008, according to a Brookings Institution analysis, but they still make up more than 50% of the eligible voting population in each of the three “blue wall” states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan). At the same time, fewer are expected to vote this year (38% of overall voters, compared to 51% in 2008).

The share of college-educated white voters, who have become increasingly Democratic on a national level, has increased by eight points in Pennsylvania since 2008, and they’re expected to make up 32% of voters nationally this year, compared to 28% in 2008, NPR reported.

In Philadelphia’s four suburban “collar counties,” where the population exceeds that of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh combined, Biden made up a loss of Democratic voters in Philadelphia in 2020 compared to Hillary Clinton’s margins (though both still won) by exceeding her vote total by more than 105,000 votes—a trend that if Harris maintains, could help her win Pennsylvania and the election as a whole.

The Harris campaign is also targeting the significant share of Pennsylvania Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley in the primary (16% of the GOP electorate), Politico Playbook reported, noting the campaign believes that if anywhere from five to ten percent of those voters back her, it could tip the state in her favor.

Georgia: More Black Voters, But Less Support Harris Vs. Biden In 2020

The state has the largest share of Black voters of any swing state, a key demographic for Harris that has grown from 29% of the Georgia voting population in 2008 to 33% in 2024, according to NPR. Harris is down eight points among Black voters in Georgia compared to Biden in 2020, while Trump has gained five points, according to a Five Thirty Eight analysis. At the same time, Trump has lost about four points since 2020 among white voters in Georgia. Georgia’s shift from red to purple over the past decade is widely attributed to diversification in the Atlanta metro area, which makes up 60% of the vote in Georgia and where the population grew by 15% between 2010 and 2020, though the white population shrank by 2%, according to Census data.

College-educated voters in the Atlanta suburbs also helped Biden win here in 2020, according to a New York Times analysis.

Michigan: Candidates Compete For Union Votes, Arab Population Could Boycott Harris

Like the other six swing states, Michigan has more college-educated voters now than in 2008 who are becoming increasingly Democratic, and 13% of the electorate is Black—typically a strong point for Democrats, but this year is less clear. The candidates are also battling for support from union workers in Michigan, where approximately 21% of households have at least one union member, according to Brookings. Trump has sought to appeal to rank-and-file union members by criticizing the Biden administration’s policies to promote electric vehicles, but Harris won the endorsement of the United Auto Workers union, and leads Trump by 20 points among UAW workers in Michigan, according to an October poll by the union.

The “non-committed” movement in protest of U.S. support for Israel in its war with Gaza is more of a threat to Harris in Michigan than perhaps any other state, as 4% of Michigan residents identify as Arab Americans. The group voted for Biden by 24 points nationally in 2020, according to Five Thirty Eight, but a poll by the Arab American Institute found Trump leads Harris by one point nationally.

Wisconsin: Rural Voters Shift Toward Democrats, Urban Areas Move Right

The whitest of all seven swing states, rural voters in Wisconsin have shifted toward Democrats, but are still heavily Republican, though less so than in rural areas nationally, while urban areas have moved to the right, but still favor Democrats by significant margins. Suburban voters prefer Harris, even though Trump won them in 2020, according to a Five Thirty Eight analysis.

Nevada: Latino Voters Shift Right, Culinary Union Backs Harris

Independents and Latino voters are hugely important in both Nevada and Arizona, and both groups have grown in size in recent years.

The share of Latinos in Nevada increased by 24% between 2010 and 2020, according to Census data, while its white population shrank by 11%. While Harris has a 14-point advantage among Latino voters in Nevada, according to a recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, it’s the lowest lead for a Democrat in the four most recent presidential elections.

The number of independent voters not registered with either party now makes up the largest share of voters in Nevada, according to the Nevada Independent, mirroring national trends that show the share of adults who consider themselves independents (43%) has reached a record high, and they lean slightly Republican, Gallup found.

The Culinary Union, the state’s largest union, has endorsed Harris, who has echoed Trump in vowing to eliminate taxes on tips, which could draw votes for either candidate—though Trump was the first to float the proposal and has promoted it heavily in Nevada.

Arizona: Latino Voter Population More Than Doubles

The share of Latino eligible voters in Arizona has more than doubled since 2000 to 25% of the population, according to the Latino Policy and Politics Institute, and Trump is leading among the demographic in some polls, including an October Marist survey that found him with a seven-point lead, a sharp dip from Biden’s 24-point win among Latinos in 2020.

Independents also now outnumber Democrats here, according to the Arizona Republic.

Big Number

2.4 points. That’s Trump’s lead in Arizona, the widest margin between the two candidates of any of the seven states. Less than a point separates the two in Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Trump has leads of just over a point in Georgia and North Carolina, and Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to statistician Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.

Why Does The Trump-Harris Gender Gap Matter?

Significantly larger shares of women support Harris in every swing state over Trump, who wins the male vote in all seven battlegrounds. The margins will help Harris win in five of the seven states if turnout among both genders repeats itself in 2020, as more women than men voted in every swing state except Wisconsin (where turnout among men and women was split equally), according to a Brookings Institution analysis of the so-called “gender gap.” If the turnout rates repeat themselves in 2020, however, they would not be enough to exceed Trump’s advantage among men in Georgia and Arizona.

Key Background

Biden won all six of the seven battlegrounds in 2020—when 13 states were considered swing states. Trump’s win in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, despite her winning the popular vote, was widely credited to him flipping Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, which together accounted for 46 electoral votes. As election day has neared, Trump’s chances of securing 270 votes before Harris have improved. Assuming she wins all the non-battleground states Biden won in 2020, Harris’ most obvious path to victory is winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which have all voted for the same presidential candidate since 1992, and always for a Democrat (with the exception of 2016). Trump, meanwhile, has his best chance of winning the Electoral College by flipping Georgia and Arizona—where Biden won by less than 15,000 votes in each—and taking one of the three “blue wall” states.

Tangent

Mirroring voter priorities on a national level, more swing state voters say inflation and increasing costs is their top issue in the election more than any other issue, followed by immigration and political extremism, according to an Ipsos survey conducted in late September and early October. Voters trust Trump to handle both immigration and the economy more than Harris, while they favor Harris on healthcare and threats to democracy.