As in 2020, the US presidential election appears close. It should be played out in a handful of states, where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are concentrating their final campaign efforts.
Unlike the states won by the Democratic vice-president, such as California or Oregon, or those of the former Republican president, such as Kentucky or Oklahoma, these seven swing states (Pivot States in French) do not clearly lean towards one party or the other. In total, they alone elect 93 electors out of the 538 in the country.
► Pennsylvania (19 electors)
With its high number of electors, Pennsylvania is particularly popular. Donald Trump won by a narrow margin in 2016 and Joe Biden won in 2020.
This year again, the result promises to be very close. The big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh lean towards the vice-president, while the former president hopes to win the ballots of the rural population.
The think tank Data for Progress sees Kamala Harris two points ahead of her competitor, at 50% to 48%. THE New York Times gives the two candidates tied, at 48%.
► Michigan (15 electors)
Although it is a historic Democratic stronghold, Michigan switched to Donald Trump in 2016, to everyone's surprise. Joe Biden won it back in 2020.
In this key state too, the results are very close. THE New York Times sees the two candidates tied, at 47%. According to AtlasIntel polls, the former president is ahead of his competitor with 49.3% of the vote against 47.8% for Kamala Harris.
The vice president visited the state on Sunday to convince remaining voters. She is seeking in particular to obtain the votes of the state's Arab-Muslim community, revolted for a year by American support for Israel.
The Democratic candidate was interrupted on August 7 by demonstrators while she was holding a meeting in Detroit. “Kamala, Kamala, you can’t hide!” We will not vote for genocide,” the protesters proclaimed.
► Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Wisconsin is also a state that was lost by the Democrats in 2016 and won in 2020. The Republicans, whose party was born in this state, organized their major convention there in July.
The New York Times puts Kamala Harris in pole position with 49% of the vote, compared to 47% for Donald Trump.
The average of the polls drawn up by the ABC News site 538 shows a difference of less than one point.
► North Carolina (16 electors)
North Carolina is the only one of the seven key 2024 states to have placed Donald Trump in the lead in 2020. If the state, which supported Barack Obama in 2008, voted for the Republican candidate in the last three presidential elections, it has a Democrat as governor.
For AtlasIntel, it is Donald Trump who is favored by voters with 50.4% of voting intentions against 46.8% for Kamala Harris. The 538 site is more measured with Donald Trump in the lead at 48.4% and Kamala Harris at 47.2%.
Several tenors of the Democratic Party, including Bill Clinton, have visited the state in recent weeks. The 16 electors would allow Kamala Harris to make a big leap towards the White House.
► Georgia (16 electors)
In Georgia, the two candidates are so close that the dynamic reverses from one poll to the next. This conservative state, normally supported by Donald Trump, preferred Joe Biden in 2020 in the wake of major anti-racist demonstrations.
If Data for Progress sees Kamala Harris leading by one point with 49% of voting intentions against 48% for Donald Trump, for AtlasIntel, it is the former president who is in the lead with 48.6% of voting intentions, against 46.8% for its competitor.
The New York Times also puts Kamala Harris in the lead, by a very small point.
► Arizona (11 electors)
A Republican land, Arizona created a surprise in 2020 by narrowly electing Joe Biden, with a 10,457 vote lead. This time the polls show the Republicans in the lead.
Data for Progress sees Donald Trump leading the race by one point at 48%, compared to 47% for the former California prosecutor.
The 538 site also sees the former president winning with 49.1% of voting intentions, compared to 46.5% for Kamala Harris.
► Nevada (6 electors)
Nevada, the least populated key state, has not voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. This situation could however change since some polls show Donald Trump winning by a narrow head.
For site 538, Donald Trump should win with 47.9% of voting intentions against the vice-president at 47.3%.
AtlasIntel sees former president at 51.4%, compared to just 45.9% for Kamala Harris
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