Yesterday I covered what we might see in the lowlands during the upcoming winter, you should read that story first to get an idea of what we generally expect across the Pacific Northwest. This post is all about what we might see in the Cascades; especially important for the ski/snowboard/snowplay industry. Make sure you read the previous post first.
First…
MOST LA NIÑA WINTERS ARE GOOD FOR N.W. SKIERS
On average, we tend to see more snow than normal in these winters and it tends to be a bit cooler than normal too. Check out the temperature anomaly for all La Niña winters back to 2000; a clear signal for cooler than normal across the Pacific Northwest!
In the past we would often say that these winters are wetter than normal (more white in mountains), but that has not been the case so far this century. From 1970 to 1999 it was a clear signal for wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest
But something appears to have changed in the last quarter century (since 2000). The last 10 La Niña winters have been drier than average all along the West Coast. Not EVERY winter, but more dry than wet.
So let’s take a look at Cascade snowfall during the 25 La Niña winters since 1951 at Government Camp. Average yearly accumulation (for any year) is 254″ back in time, but just 234″ in the past 30 years. This elevation in the Cascades gets less snow than 50 years ago.
If we add in Mt. Hood Meadows up around 5,300′, the total each winter is higher. Most La Niña winters do quite well up there too
How about the early part of the season when everyone is really excited to hit the slopes? Notice November+December snowfall is higher than average too, not dramatically higher, but in general we see more snowfall earlier in these winters. Notice some of these winters still had a slow start: 2011, 2017, 2000 (terrible year), 1999, 1995. There’s a better chance this winter that we’ll have good skiing in time for Christmas Break. It sure HAS to be better than the terrible conditions last Christmas right???
As for just November? An early start maybe??? We have no idea. Look how different each November has behaved since 1980! Oooh, look at those 80+ inches of snow in November 2010!
SUMMARY
- There is a very good chance this ski season will be significantly better than last year, plan on it.
- Expect better snow conditions in general throughout the season
- There’s no reason to think the ski season will start early; don’t panic if it’s a slow start.
- Good conditions should linger well into March since La Niña springs tend to start slowly and cold
- Snowpack in much of the Oregon and Washington Cascades will likely be above normal this wet season. That’s a good sign for water supply next summer.
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