Vhere, this October 9, the daily results of the six poll aggregators concerning the American presidential election on November 5 that we have selected concerning the face to face between the Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris and the Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Two of the six aggregators we selected have been updated.
In the six aggregators, Kamala Harris maintains the lead with scores between 48.5% (-0.1) and 49.8% (=).
In three aggregators, its score is beyond the margins of error.
The Democratic candidate’s score equals or exceeds 49% in five out of six aggregators.
The aggregators’ differences in favor of the centrist versus the extremist populist thus range from 2 points (=) to 3.1 points (-0.1).
► Results from Harris/Trump poll aggregators
| Aggregator | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Gap |
| Real | 49,2% (=) | 47,2% (=) | Harris 2 (=) |
| The | 49,8% (=) | 46,8 % (+0,3) | Harris 3 (-0,3) |
| Race | 49,1% (=) | 46% (=) | Harris 3,1 (=) |
| 270 | 49,3% (=) | 46,5(=) | Harris 2,8 (=) |
| Five | 48,5% (-0,1) | 45,9% (=) | Harris 2,6 (-0,1) |
| Silver | 49,3% (NA) | 46,2% (NA) | Harris 3,1 (NA) |
*NA: not updated / ND: not available
(A poll aggregator is an average of the last published polls / 270 to win takes into account the last five polls / Real Clear Politics takes into account polls published in the previous 30 days / The Hill takes into account polls published in the last 3 days / Race to the WH takes into account polls published over the last 5 days) / 538 takes into account all polls published since March 1)
Important note: All these aggregators take into account all published surveys.
However, some of them are published by institutes whose seriousness is open to discussion and others by institutes which are affiliated with parties and which tend to make corrections, adjustments and weightings in favor of the candidate that they they support.
It is therefore appropriate to take them as useful information but which does not give a “scientific” vision of opinion.
However, the results of national polls are generally more accurate than those carried out in each state, notably the “swing states”, the key states which swing the election to one side or the other under the American electoral system. , because the panels are often not representative enough in quality or quantity and the adjustments are subject to doubt.
All these biases mean that we have preferred to publish above all aggregators than each poll that is published even if, in a second step, we intend to publish some which we consider serious as well as those which analyze the state of opinion on a daily basis and which have not yet been started.
