(BFM Bourse) – The video game publisher announced the second postponement of the game Assassin’s Creed Shadows and slightly lowered its revenue forecast for the current financial year on Thursday evening. The company has also mandated banks to study capital options. But the Stock Exchange especially notes the new operational snag and thus sanctions the company.
The year 2024 was bitter for Ubisoft on the stock market. Between the disappointing sales of the game Star Wars Outlaws, the postponement of the next Assassin’s Creed from November to February and a heavy profit warning, the video game publisher’s action lost 43.1% last year, i.e. the ninth largest drop in the SBF 120. And again, the return of speculation on the title, with hopes of a public purchase offer and a withdrawal of the listing, limited the damage.
The start of 2025 begins on the same basis. Thursday January 9, after the close of the Paris market, Ubisoft delivered several announcements. The group has once again postponed the release of Assassin’s Creed Shadows, a title on which the company is betting big. Ubisoft plans to release the game on March 20 and no longer February 14.
This one-month postponement should make it possible to better integrate player feedback to create the best possible conditions for the launch of the game, Yves Guillemot, CEO of Ubisoft, told analysts on Thursday evening.
Lowered targets
At the same time, Ubisoft lowered its forecasts for “net bookings” (revenue restated for certain deferred revenues) both for the third quarter and for its entire 2024-2025 financial year, which will end on March 31. next.
For the third quarter, the group is now counting on a figure of 300 million euros compared to 380 million euros previously. For the full year, the company adjusted its forecast to around 1.9 billion euros from 1.95 billion euros previously. Ubisoft also confirmed that it is targeting operating profit (non-IFRS) and free cash flow to break even.
The company says the new outlook reflects both weaker-than-expected sales over the holiday season and the December discontinuation of XDefiant, a first-person shooter.
This explains why the net bookings target was significantly lowered for the third quarter. But, over the entire 2024-2025 financial year, Ubisoft intends to largely compensate for these shortfalls (and the later release of Assassin’s Creed Shadows) with other sources of income. The group explains that it will take advantage of “new partnership opportunities for Ubisoft games and franchises as well as for the monetization of streaming rights acquired during the last financial year”.
Review of capital options…
Latest announcement: Ubisoft told the market it has commissioned consultancy to “study and pursue various transformative strategic and capital options, in order to extract the best possible value for stakeholders”.
A Morgan Stanley analyst noted to management that this statement remained “a little vague.” Yves Guillemot responded that the company could not say more at this stage and that it would return to the market if a transaction materializes. “But we are convinced that there are several paths to generate value from Ubisoft franchises and assets,” he added.
In the highly codified language of the stock market and finance, “strategic and capital options” can mean that the company is considering, among these options, an increase in the capital of one or more investors. And potentially a delisting of Ubisoft, which would be synonymous with a public takeover offer and therefore an exit door for minority shareholders with a premium.
Such a scenario has gained weight in recent months, after Bloomberg and Reuters in turn reported that Ubisoft management was studying the possibility of delisting Ubisoft, alongside Tencent, its Chinese partner. The video game publisher did not comment on this press information.
…But nothing new
But, to return to Thursday evening’s announcements, Ubisoft is not actually saying much new by declaring that it is studying “transforming strategic and capital options”.
As one analyst noted, the company’s management had already indicated several times that it considered all “its strategic options in the interests of its stakeholders.” And therefore a delisting was already being studied. The “real” announcement on Thursday evening is that the company has taken an additional step by commissioning advice as part of this strategic review.
All this can explain why the market punishes Ubisoft. Around 10:40 a.m., the stock fell 7% on the Paris Stock Exchange.
“If the confirmation of speculation could limit the decline, commercial performance and the new discrepancy should be punished,” Invest Securities judged in a note published before the market opened.
“The market is focusing on the new operational disappointment rather than a possible sale of the company. The one-month postponement of Assassin’s Creed Shadows shows a certain excitement about this game which represents a big deal for Ubisoft. It is floating “the idea that Ubisoft has lost control a little”, judges an analyst.
In this context, the market is therefore not giving in to the lure of speculation on the stock. “Investors can, perhaps, even say to themselves that the study of capital options in reality represents a counter-fire to operational difficulties. And for the moment, it is not certain that this strategic review will result in an offer “The Guillemot family can, to maintain control, go through, for example, the issue of bonds convertible into shares to provide cash”, adds the previously cited analyst.
TP ICAP Midcap, for its part, reiterated its advice to buy on value, “despite the lack of visibility”. The design office justifies its recommendation by the group’s “asset base” and “the arrival of what should/could be the biggest Assassin’s Creed in history.”
Julien Marion – ©2025 BFM Bourse
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