Ubisoft: after the Star Wars Outlaws setback, Assassin’s Creed Shadows has a huge weight on its shoulders – News

With the stock market collapsing completely, sales of Star Wars Outlaws well below expectations, and a postponement of Assassin’s Creed Shadows interpreted by many as a huge warning signal, Ubisoft is really not at his best.

Concerning Star Wars Outlawswith an estimated sales figure of one million copies in one month, the open world title designed by Massive Entertainment is miles away from the objectives set internally. According to financial analysts at UBS, SWO would have benefited from a global budget of 250 to 300 million dollars, and was expected to reach 10 million copies, a usual score for franchises Far Cry et Assassin’s Creedto be considered a success. But sales forecasts quickly collapsed. Financial specialists JP Morgan had counted on 7.5 million at best, before targeting 5.5 million sales by the end of March 2025. These forecasts were re-studied following poor feedback from players, and notes from the press, below what was expected: 75/100 in press scores on Metacritic (and a nice 7 from our Cael), but barely 5.4/10 from the players.

After such a disappointment (and we will not mention the cases of Skull & Bonesfrom the Arlesian Beyond & Evil 2 and whatnot), Ubisoft is in a state of intense financial stress. There is even an internal revolt from certain shareholders who would like the company to be sold, and for CEO Yves Guillemot to be removed. In this context, in fact, Assassin’s Creed Shadows seems to be Ubisoft’s all-out winner. In any case, Ubisoft as we know it today. But when we talk about going all out for an Assassin’s Creed and the financial stakes of an opus in this lucrative franchise, what exactly are we talking about?

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Assassin’s Creed: The Return of the Prodigal Son’s Vengeance, Opus 27

Assassin’s Creedit’s officially 200 million sales. A score which places the Ubi license at the top of the basket of the most lucrative video game franchises, although it is surpassed by monsters like Mario (879 million units), Tetris (495 millions), Pokémon (480 millions), GTA (430 millions), FIFA (325 million) or Minecraft (350 millions). AC is on par with LEGO games (200 million) and Sims (200 million), but better than Final Fantasy (185 million) or Sonic (166 millions).

If we constitute the ranking of the 10 best sales of the main episodes of the saga Assassin’s Creedsorted by number of estimated sales, here is the result obtained:

1. Assassin’s Creed: Valhalla (2020) – 20 million copies sold
2. Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag (2013) – 15 million copies sold
3. Assassin’s Creed III (2012) – 12 million copies sold
4. Assassin’s Creed (2007) – 11 million copies sold
5. Assassin’s Creed II (2009) – 10 million copies sold
6. Assassin’s Creed: Origins (2017) – 10 million copies sold
7. Assassin’s Creed: Unity (2014) – 10 million copies sold
8. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey (2018) – 9.5 million copies sold
9. Assassin’s Creed: Brotherhood (2010) – 7 million copies sold
10. Assassin’s Creed: Revelations (2011) – 7 million copies sold

We will note the unwavering presence of the first four opuses in the top 5 sales, surpassed only by AC Valhallawho achieved the best score in the license ACwith its 20 million units sold. The very supportive atmosphere of Viking mythology (thank you the series Vikingand the reboot of God of War), combined with very aggressive marketing and content regularly added to the game – beyond its own qualities -, constituted a successful commercial cocktail.

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It is interesting to put this previous ranking in parallel with the ranking of the main episodes of the series Assassin’s Creed based on their aggregated scores on Metacritic (based on console and PC versions):

1. Assassin’s Creed II (2009) – 91/100
2. Assassin’s Creed: Brotherhood (2010) – 90/100
3. Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag (2013) – 88/100
4. Assassin’s Creed: Valhalla (2020) – 84/100
5. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey (2018) – 83/100
6. Assassin’s Creed: Origins (2017) – 81/100
7. Assassin’s Creed (2007) – 81/100
8. Assassin’s Creed III (2012) – 80/100
9. Assassin’s Creed: Revelations (2011) – 80/100
10. Assassin’s Creed: Syndicate (2015) – 76/100
11. Assassin’s Creed: Mirage (2023) – 76/100

Overall, the sales figures match the press’ assessments quite well. An element which fuels the fact that large production houses rely heavily on good feedback and overall ratings from aggregators (Metacritic and OpenCritic in the lead), with the famous fateful “acceptability” threshold of 80%. We will not return to the shaky aspect of this type of calculator, but it is once again a necessary evil, on which many “conscious consumers” will rely. A somewhat capilotracted expression to designate players who will read and research before buying, unlike the occasional or opportunity buyer who will buy their monthly game on their brand or on their purchasing habit. You know who we’re talking about.

World, open up

By opening our blinders a little and taking a look at the other open world games that have marked the industry, we realize that the famous “Ubisoft formula” is not that effective in terms of sales. Let’s take the best seller, AC Valhalla with its 20 million units sold. He is on par with a Horizon Zero Dawn and its 20 million copies sold. But in the Ubi stable, Far Cry 5 did better thanAC Valhallasince it found 25 million buyers. 25 million units is precisely the milestone thatFire Ring has crossed (we will come back to this case quickly).

In bulk, let us cite the 25 million Cyberpunk 207732 million Breath of the WildThe Witcher 3: Wild Hunt and its 50 million copies sold, Red Dead Redemption 2 and its 55 million sales, and the 60 million of Skyrim in the wild. Astronomical figures, which however seem very small next to the 185 million sales of GTA V.

Let’s get back on trackFire Ring. When the game passed the milestone of 20 million units sold, according to ExpertBeacon experts, FromSoftware’s game would have generated $1.32 billion in revenue alone, which makes an overall profit for the studio. 1.18 billion after removing development costs, taxes and marketing investments. And this while the overall budget of the game would have been 135 to 150 million dollars. Although it is difficult to estimate the amount of profits generated by Fire Ring now that the milestone of 25 million units has been crossed, we can still estimate that this would be around 1.4 to 1.45 billion dollars.

Second example, our colleagues at Eurogamer revealed that AC Valhalla had generated nearly a billion dollars in revenue, for a budget estimated at 140 million dollars. The equation is not the same, since there are season passes and paid DLC to take into account. Still, we can simplify the equations, and say that 20 million copies sold for a AAA with a budget of 130 to 150 million dollars, that’s a billion in revenue at stake.

This example provides an idea of ​​what commercial success can generate. So when analysts estimate that Star Wars Outlaws had to reach the milestone of 10 million sales to be profitable, while its budget is double that ofFire Ringit is likely that they were just aiming to recoup their costs. A doubled budget, objectives which aim for half of the sales of AC Valhalla or Fire Ringand only 1 million sales in one month. Meals should not be lacking in salt in business dinners at Ubi.

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Although we currently do not know the amount of the budget forAssassin’s Creed Shadowswe can estimate that it will have benefited from a budget at least equivalent to that ofAC Valhallabut perhaps not as colossal as that of SW Outlaws. We can count on a wide range of 150 to 200 million budget, probably excluding marketing. Under these conditions, with the financial weight of the SWO disappointment on our shoulders, and the almost Sisyphean task of climbing out of Ubisoft’s troubled waters, it is possible that the sales objectives will be set at a minimum of 15 million units (plus 20 if we want to be realistic).

Assassin’s Creed Shadows will be released on February 14, 2025. According to journalist Tom Henderson, pre-orders for the game would be excellent, but will sales ultimately be enough to save Ubisoft’s fiscal year, or at least end it on a positive note? First elements of answers in February.