Israel launches ground offensive in Lebanon

The war in the Middle East threatens to finally escalate. Just a few days after Israel decimated the Lebanese Hezbollah with heavy air strikes and killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran is now also intervening in the war. On Tuesday evening, Tehran fired ballistic missiles at Israel. There is talk of 180 rockets in the Israeli media. Images from social networks show a veritable rain of fire falling on Israel.

Sirens wailed across the country and the population was asked to immediately seek shelter in bunkers. American sources had already warned of an impending Iranian attack during the afternoon. The Americans had also assured their Israeli allies of all support. A direct attack would have serious consequences, a US official said. Iran is said to have informed the Americans shortly before the attack.

According to initial reports from Israeli media, no people were apparently killed in the Iranian wave of attacks. However, there were several injuries. It is still unknown which targets the missiles were aimed at. According to Israeli information, a large part of it was apparently intercepted. Tehran, however, reported that 80 percent of its missiles had reached their targets.

Iranian media reported that the attacks were in retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah – but also for the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, who was killed in an attack in Tehran two months ago, and the killings of several Iranian military officers in recent months. There had long been speculation about how Iran would react to Israel’s hammer blows against Hezbollah. So far, Tehran has held back and sent mixed signals. Now the signs seem to be pointing to war.

The signs point to war

An Israeli military spokesman said on Tuesday evening that the attack would have consequences. Iran’s UN mission, however, wrote that the shelling was a legal, rational and legitimate response. If Israel now responds, an even harsher reaction would follow. Shortly before the Iranian air strike, Tel Aviv was also shaken by a terrorist attack. According to police, several gunmen shot at least six people and injured nine others.

Most recently, the latest war in the Middle East, which began with the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, escalated at almost breakneck speed. After the Israelis succeeded in severely decimating Iran’s important ally Hezbollah with air strikes last week, Israel’s army also attacked the Shiite militia on the ground on Tuesday.

The army announced in the early hours of the morning that it had launched a “targeted and limited” ground offensive in southern Lebanon. The focus of the maneuver was on Hezbollah positions in several Lebanese villages along the border, which posed an immediate threat to Israeli cities.

Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari claimed on Tuesday that Hezbollah was preparing to carry out an invasion like the one carried out by Hamas on October 7 in Lebanese villages along the border.

By Monday evening there were already increasing signs of a ground offensive. The Israeli military declared several areas along the border to be restricted military zones, including the communities of Metula, Misgav Am and Kfar Giladi. A short time later there were reports that the Lebanese army had withdrawn from the immediate border area.

A limited ground offensive?

It is currently unclear how “limited” this ground offensive actually is. On Tuesday morning, Israel called on residents of around a dozen villages and towns across southern Lebanon to immediately leave their homes and seek safety across the Awali River. This is more than 50 kilometers from the border.

At the same time, there are many indications that there will be no large-scale ground operation for the time being, as was the case in 2006. Israel recently deployed additional units near the border and mobilized individual reserve brigades. Nevertheless, the number of troops is relatively limited – for a major invasion of southern Lebanon, Israel would probably have to mobilize thousands more soldiers, although there are currently no signs of this.

On Tuesday it also became known that Israeli troops had apparently not advanced into Lebanese territory for the first time. As an army spokesman said, commando units had already carried out dozens of attacks on Hezbollah positions and tunnels in recent months, partially destroying them and also capturing weapons and ammunition.

What does Israel want to achieve?

But the question arises as to what Israel can and wants to achieve with its current initiatives. On Tuesday, an Israeli security official told reporters that the primary goal was to destroy Hezbollah positions along the border. “It is not an option to invade Beirut.” Israeli troops would operate within walking distance of the border.

A longer occupation of the area is not planned: “What is happening right now is not a major operation that is intended to be long-term – we are talking about limited attacks in specific areas.” The attacks are limited in time and the troops deployed so far can only be used to carry out smaller military operations. “This cannot be compared to the operations we saw in Gaza.”

But Hezbollah has positions and an extensive network of tunnels not only in the immediate border area, but also in practically the entire southern Lebanon. Even if it were pushed back a few kilometers, it could continue its shelling of Israel. On Monday, Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Kassem announced: “The resistance forces are ready for a ground fight.”

Washington stands behind Israel

Meanwhile, the United States, Israel’s most important ally, has thrown its support behind Israel, albeit hesitantly. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a phone call with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant: “We agree on the need to remove infrastructure along the border to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks on Israel’s northern communities.” Israel has the right to defend itself.

At the same time, the USA warned of an expansion of the offensive and a resulting long war against the Shiite militia – ultimately a diplomatic solution will be needed to enable the return of residents on both sides of the border. However, as a result of the Iranian attack, this seems further away than ever. Quite the opposite: the war threatens to expand and, in the worst case, could also involve the USA.