It’s time to make my NFL second round playoff betting picks! Ready for an exciting weekend?
PICK #1: Texans +9 (at the Chiefs)
Let’s start with the bad news.
Since their inception in 2002, the Texans have reached the second round five times. Their record to this point is 0-5, including a memorable game where they squandered a 24-0 lead against…the Chiefs!
Another thing that makes me hesitant about this bet is the fact that Kansas City practically had two full weeks off. This is a huge advantage and I don’t think they will be rusty as they have many experienced players.
That said, I believe the Texans will win by a significant margin. There are several reasons that support this choice.
Sure, the Chiefs finished their seasons with an impressive 15-1 record, but they only won by a margin of nine points or more four times. In fact, they only finished in 11th place for points difference in the entire league, making it clear that they are not dominating their opponents as much as before. Their offense is now designed to play long shifts on the field.
I also like the fact that both Chiefs guards have had very weak performances this season. However, they are preparing to face the best duo of quarterback hunters in the NFL: Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.
Houston’s offensive line isn’t much better, however. But my point is that the Chiefs won’t be able to score at will, which will keep the score close. That’s all we need to win our bet.
These two teams faced each other in week 16. In this game, the final statistics were quite balanced, but what cost the Texans dearly were the two interceptions that directly led to 10 points. Still, Houston lost by eight points, which would be enough to win our bet this week.
Additionally, in this matchup, Houston was not prepared to play without Tank Dell, who suffered a devastating knee injury. After his departure, the Texans accumulated only 38 yards of offense in a quarter and a half. Quarterback CJ Stroud was visibly affected by the loss of his close friend.
Houston’s defense led the league in percentage of completions allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They also finished fourth in interceptions. Last week, they intercepted Justin Herbert four times, after he had only thrown three during the entire regular season.
In summary, Houston’s strong pass defense will force Kansas City to run the ball often. This will deplete the clock faster, increasing the chances of a close match.
I find it unlikely that the Chiefs will win by a margin of 10 points or more. So my final decision is to bet on the Texans with nine extra points to cover the spread.
Getty Images via AFP
PICK #2: Lions -9.5 (vs. Commanders)
Last week, Jayden Daniels became the first freshman quarterback to win a road playoff game in 13 years. It was a real feat!
Daniels showed calm and carried his team on his shoulders, as the ground game did not help him at all. Indeed, if you take away Daniels’ carries, the rest of the team ran 20 times for 46 yards, an average of just 2.3 yards per carry.
Being a one-dimensional offense wasn’t a problem against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it will be a big concern against the Detroit Lions, who are 15-2 in the regular season.
Another point of concern for Washington is their ineffectiveness in the red zone last week. If you don’t end your streaks with touchdowns against the Lions, you’re doomed.
Detroit also has a huge rest advantage. They will play at home for the third straight week, while the Commanders travel for a third straight week. And of course, the Lions had an extra week off.
-For all these reasons, I think Detroit will win by a margin of 10 points or more. My final prediction is therefore to support the Lions with a gap of -9.5 points.
I know Detroit’s defense is diminished. They’ve given up the third-most air yards this year, but that’s misleading. Their opponents were often forced to throw a lot because of Detroit’s explosive offense.
In my opinion, the Lions will benefit greatly from the ground game. Washington has given up the fifth-highest rushing yardage average, while Detroit has a very strong ground game.
Getty Images via AFP
PICK #3: Bills (vs. Ravens)
Let’s move on to the highly anticipated matchup between the two main candidates for the MVP title: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
After analyzing this match in detail, I decided to bet on Buffalo for a straight victory.
Many pundits like to recall the first meeting between these two teams: a crushing 35-10 Ravens victory in Baltimore in Week 4. In that game, the Ravens rushed for 271 yards, while Josh Allen only threw for 180 yards.
However, did you know that the Bills defense was missing three key players? Indeed, linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard were not in uniform for this game, as was defensive back Taron Johnson. Their presence this Sunday will make a big difference.
Additionally, the first match was held in Baltimore, while the second leg will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Need I remind you that the Bills were a perfect 9-0 in this stadium this season? Meanwhile, the Ravens were 6-3 on the road.
Another underrated aspect of this game is the likely absence of wide receiver Zay Flowers. In my opinion, he is by far the Ravens’ best receiver. He caught 74 passes, while second-leading receiver Rashod Bateman caught just 45. Flowers’ absence wasn’t felt last week in Pittsburgh, but it will be crucial this weekend .
The game plan for Buffalo’s defense is obvious: charge the line of scrimmage and force Lamar to beat them with his arm. I know he can be a good passer, but it won’t be easy without Flowers.
I’ve also heard a lot of experts talk about the recent improvement of the Ravens defense. They have only given up an average of 11.4 points per game in their last five outings.
However, have you seen the quality of the opposing attacks? They played the Giants, Browns, Texans and Steelers twice. These teams all finished in 16th place or worse in points scored this year. They don’t compare to Buffalo’s offense.
In my opinion, Baltimore faced a good offense seven times. Here is the number of points conceded in these games: 27 against the Chiefs, 10 against the Bills, 38 against the Bengals, 23 against the Commanders, 31 against the Bucs, 34 again against the Bengals and 24 against the Eagles. If you do the math, that works out to an average of 26.7 points per game.
One of my concerns for this game is that the Bills could become a one-dimensional offense, as Baltimore has the best run defense in the league. Additionally, the Ravens have an extra day off, having played last Saturday, while the Bills played on Sunday.
Despite everything, I decided to bet on Buffalo to win this game. They are currently very slight underdogs, but I think they will do well and qualify for the American finals next week.
Good luck with your bets!
