During this holiday break, let's return to two themes that have marked the CH season so far: reconstruction and the famous “mix” hoped for by its leaders.
Commentators, analysts and supporters are unanimous: the CH is once again this year in reconstruction.
The Canadian himself takes responsibility for it! He is going to do a season II of “Reconstruction” for the greatest happiness… of those who like it…
But last summer, were leaders considering 2024-2025 as a rebuilding season?
At first glance, nothing is less certain, especially if we use a naive, narrow and simply erroneous definition of reconstruction as the decision to sell everything one's assets to the highest bidder and end up in the cellar.
This definition would correspond much better to concepts like “fire sale” or “demolition”.
Of course, a certain phase of demolition is necessary for all reconstruction projects (which are in fact always more major renovation projects, if we want to continue the building analogy…), but in a more lucid way the concept of ” reconstruction” would rather be defined approximately as follows:
Rebuilding is a rather long and complex process by which a team hopes to give itself a better chance of winning in the long term by drafting relatively early in the first round and accumulating draft picks or young prospects. This process is often triggered by the loss of assets (injuries, retirements, autonomy, etc.) as well as by trading established players, while maintaining the possibility of retaining or acquiring a certain number of them for allow to mature, support or frame the young nucleus.
By the way, this is a definition approved by the greatest known universe expert in the field! I'll let you guess who it is!
So, with the addition of a player of Laine's caliber – a star player with superstar potential when all the physical and psychological pieces come together (fingers crossed after yesterday's game) – the leaders of the CH undoubtedly felt that they were at a new stage of their reconstruction and that the bulk of the demolition was certainly finished or in the process of being finished.
They believed they could afford this year to start “finishing” of certain rooms in the house… or the top-6 in this case. Laine, 26 years old, not exactly an old man, 2e overall pick in 2016, comes fatten et press the young core in attack. Clearly a gesture which announces the end of the reconstruction process.
Let's not forget that a few weeks earlier, with the Demidov and Hage selections in the draft, HuGo had certainly added one, maybe two pieces to its future top-6.
And there, with the Barron/Carrier exchange, he has certainly just very concretely consolidated his defensive brigade with a reliable, versatile and hyper-motivated veteran, more capable of ensuring good supervision of young people in the coming years.
So, yes, we can rebuild and aim for the “mix” at the same time. There is often a necessary transitional phase towards excellence.
Aiming for the “mix” and acting accordingly as the CH did with the acquisitions of Laine and Carrier in return for Harris and Barron, are very clear signals that we are preparing to move to another level from 2025- 2026.
With a few nuances, 2025-2026 is quite what we had anticipated a little while ago…
A top-6 to consolidate
But if we want CH to position itself among the “very good teams” of the NHL from next year, or at least a club that could logically aspire to the playoffs, it will first need to consolidate its top-6 on the attack.
Currently, Newhook and Dach are not of caliber and, in their cases, big doubts will remain as to what happens next.
Demidov, the best producer per 60 minutes in the entire KHL, should easily replace Newhook or, who knows, it could possibly be Dach, if we dare to try the adventure with Demidov at center sooner rather than later.
So far, Dach, 24 years old in January, is really not having the season he hoped for, and if he is for the moment a question mark for the organization, on the ice, he is downright a liability for his trio .
Return to the game after major knee operations, not arriving in training camp in good shape, differential of -24 in 33 games…
Can he become the player he once was again? Can he become the player we dared to think was potentially superior to Suzuki?
After such knee injuries and questionable fitness, nothing is less certain, as Max Truman analyzed not so long ago…
Will the Canadian rely on patience in his case or will he send him elsewhere in return for a safer bet as he has just done with Barron?
Dach will already be in the final year of his four-year contract next year, after which he will become a restricted free agent.
In theory, there is no rush in his case and the Canadian should not panic. With 49 games left this season, if he regains some of his splendor in the second half of the season, Dach could increase his use value.
But if things don't turn around for him, it could be very tempting for HuGo to look at other options in the coming months.
The leaders will not want to start the next season in a weak position with lots of questions about their alignment.
But back to the “mix”!
A brief analysis of the schedule that awaits the Canadian until the end of the season, including the difficult segment that will take him to the break in the four nations tournament, invites us to think that the respectability threshold of .500 remains achievable… or almost.
For my part, I give them the following record over the next 48 games: 22-26-4, good for 48 points and a cumulative 79 points at the end of the season.
Internally, the presence of Hutson on the first numerical advantage combined with the return of Laine and the arrival of Carrier, allowed everyone to find a more comfortable chair. We can also anticipate a much better second half of the season from Slavs and maybe even Dach.
All this clearly seems likely to transform the Tricolore, an undrinkable club which was barely playing for .400 a few weeks ago, into a much more enjoyable vintage which, if it plays as it is capable, might well have to forget the Schaefer and other big names in the top-5 in the next draft.
Unless of course the leaders decide otherwise and aggressively target the top-5 by exchanging the very effective and “renegotiable” Evans and Armia, in addition to Savard and Dvorak, names more often mentioned…
So, will the chain (re)land at some point due to end-of-rebuild trades? Will there be any significant injuries? Will January and February be too fateful because of the quality of the opponents?
Maybe. But maybe not either…
Thus, to the great sadness of some but the relative happiness of others, if the CH finished the season not too far from the “mix” with a record of 79 points, it would logically draft near 10th place, a choice which could end up quite close to that of the Flames, with a slight drop in the latter…
Lots of “bad clubs”
But the quasi « mix » (I don't no man’ landit depends!) is explained and could also be made possible because of a factor external to the Habs: the East is really weak this season!
Last year, only six clubs had a negative goals for/goals against differential (including the Caps who qualified for the playoffs with 91 points but a differential of -37!).
Also, only four clubs (New Jersey, Ottawa, Montreal and Columbus) had not played for .500.
For comparison, as of December 23, we count nine teams with negative differentials and seven playing for less than .500.
The Rangers are in free fall, the Islanders are disappointing, the Flyers are winning less often, the Sabers and Wings have been rotten during the last 10 matches, as for the Jaquettes Bleues, nothing has changed with their average of .486…
If Flannel maintains some momentum, these are six clubs within its reach.
Finally, add to these the Sharks, Predators, Blackhawks, Ducks and Kraken in the West and it is even more difficult to see how the CH could draft in the top-5.
Voilà!
I hope I have provided you with a little food for discussion to accompany the succulent and delicious excesses that you will make!
Happy Holidays everyone!
We'll talk about CMJ soon!
