In a very bad position after the first four days of the league phase of the Champions League, PSG will have to pull itself together very significantly if it does not want to write one of the worst pages in its European history.
The alert is red and the calculators are out. Beaten at the last second by Atlético at the Parc des Princes (1-2), PSG occupies, after four days of this new Champions League, a very mediocre 25th place with four small points. Light years away from the top 8 that the Parisians were targeting at the start of the season.
Clearly, if the league phase ended today, the European journey of the Ile-de-France club would end there, since only the first 24 teams are qualified for the rest of the competition: the first eight directly for the round of 16, the next 16 for round-trip play-offs.
To understand the alarming situation of PSG, it is enough to look at the pedigree of the teams which precede the reigning French champions in the ranking. Club Bruges, Dinamo Zagreb, Celtic Glasgow, but also Lille, Monaco or Brest… No doubt, the Parisians cannot be satisfied with their current position.
A supercharged calendar
But in this single-pool formula, where only a third of the teams will leave at the end of the league phase, it is tempting to say that a club with a financial base as comfortable as PSG will always end up finding a way to save your skin and overcome the roadblocks.
So are Luis Enrique’s men really in danger of elimination? To assess the level of concern, it is first a question of observing the schedule which awaits the Parisians for this second part of the championship. And this one looks particularly tough.
Indeed, over its next four meetings, PSG will travel three times: to Munich on the pitch of Bayern also lacking points, then to Salzburg and Stuttgart. The only home match left for the Parisians? Nothing less than the Manchester City of Pep Guardiola. We have had a more digestible menu.
PSG calendar
- Bayern Munich-PSG (March 26 November)
- RB Salzburg-PSG (Tuesday December 10)
- PSG-Manchester City (Wednesday January 22)
- VfB Stuttgart-PSG (Wednesday January 29)
Few points to lose
How many points can PSG hope to glean at this tough end of the journey? The most pessimistic hypothesis would see the young Parisians lose in Munich and against Manchester City and bring home a point from each of their trips to Salzburg and Stuttgart. PSG would therefore end this league phase with 6 points.
If we consider an average hypothesis, we can imagine PSG capable of grabbing a draw in Munich and against Manchester City and taking 4 points from the two trips to Salzburg and Stuttgart. The Parisians would thus finish with 10 points.
Finally, in the most optimistic version, PSG would go flawless, winning three times away and once at home to end their league phase with 16 points.
What place would it then occupy when doing the accounts? Difficult to provide an exact answer to this question since no one can claim to have mastered the secrets of this new formula of the Champions League. But algorithmic models established on the basis of 10,000 simulations suggested at the start of the season the 9-10 points mark as the one where qualification for the top 24, synonymous with accession to the play-offs, would be contested. The top 8, whose members will be directly qualified for the round of 16, would be played out between 14 and 16 points.
Between 8th and 29th place
The pessimistic hypothesis of 6 points would therefore see PSG finish around 28 or 29th place and would condemn the French champion to the infamy of premature elimination. A moderate 10 points could see him snag a ticket for the play-offs but his poor ranking, probably between 21st and 24th place, would send him directly into the arms of a team ranked between 9th and 12th place.
Finally, the version which would see PSG make a spectacular awakening in this Champions League and win everything in its path could allow Luis Enrique’s men to grab an unexpected place in the top 8, skipping the play-off box in the process.
The fact remains that this idealistic hypothesis seems very improbable given the current difficulties of the Parisian club in the competition. But we would bet that on the evening of a defeat as frustrating as that of this Wednesday against Atlético, the Parisians would happily sign for the sole assurance of not being eliminated.
