Welcome to The Week in NUMBERS. Each week, I highlight three key statistics that have defined the Canadian’s successes and failures over the last seven days.
This week: little positive on defense, killer turnovers, and the NHL must adapt to Lane Hutson.
2
Players with a positive differential this season
Six goals scored in three matches. Seventeen goals allowed. It was a nightmare week for the CH, who unsurprisingly lost their three games and now find themselves in last place in the Atlantic Division with a record of 4-7-1. Montreal has a minus-17 goal differential, 31st in the NHL and ahead of only the San Jose Sharks, who are minus-18.
We unfortunately see the return of the pendulum of last year, where the goalkeepers worked miracles and kept the CH in matches with a difference of one goal even if they were dominated. Now that Samuel Montembeault is not working miracles, the dubious defense of CH is regularly exposed and we allow goals in short sequences far too regularly. As a result, Kaiden Guhle and Juraj Slafkovsky are the only two Habs players to have a positive differential, at only plus-1. The other 20 skaters are minus-1 or worse, going all the way to Kirby Dach’s minus-14.
While I’ll be the first to say that the differential is an outdated statistic, there’s no doubt that the Canadian simply isn’t good enough defensively. The numbers put forward support what fans see night after night. Michael Pezzetta and Jayden Struble are the only two CH players who have an expected goals rate above 50% and they are only sporadically in the lineup. That leaves 20 of the 22 players with a differential below 50%, which means that the CH allows more attack than it generates when it is on the ice. This is simply unacceptable, and it’s not something that can be fixed by alternating your 6th defender or your 4th line winger.
21
Goals allowed within 10 seconds of a turnover
Montreal’s defensive shortcomings can’t be isolated to just one aspect, but something that obviously hurts a lot night after night is turnovers. Few fans will be surprised to learn that the Habs have allowed 21 goals within 10 seconds of a turnover this season. They are one of only two clubs to have allowed at least 20 such goals, ironically only ahead of their opponents last Saturday, the Pittsburgh Penguins, who allowed 23. This is exactly how the Pens opened the scoring.
Matheson does not control the disc well after the punt, makes a mistake and Sidney Crosby scores in the seconds that follow. Montreal gives way too many and, unfortunately, does not take advantage of these mistakes on the other side. Martin St-Louis’ men have only scored 7 goals within 10 seconds of a turnover this season, 31st in the league and ahead of only the Canucks (6). It’s difficult to win matches by constantly shooting yourself in the foot.
24
End-to-end offensive surges for Lane Hutson
It’s been a difficult week for the Habs, but we can still end on a positive note and who better to bring a little positivity than Lane Hutson? The rookie defender is still looking for his first goal and he came very close to deceiving the goalkeeper with a magnificent sequence against the Kraken.
Hutson did all the work alone, carrying the puck from behind his net to the bottom of the opposing slot. This isn’t the first time Hutson has handled the puck from one end of the ice to the other. In fact, he now has 24 offensive drives from end to end, that is to say a sequence where he crosses the two blue lines and the red line without losing possession of the puck and without making a pass. This total is surpassed by only a few forwards, several of whom are among the best on the Bettman circuit: Connor McDavid (36), Jack Hughes (35), Nathan MacKinnon (32), Mat Barzal (26), Nazem Kadri (26) , Brayden Point (26), and Jack Eichel (25). He is also the only defenseman to have made more than 20 this season, ahead of an once again impressive list of names, where he doubles all players at the position with the exception of two Norris Trophy winners.
Tableau Lane Hutson
There was a lot of talk over the summer about what Lane would need to do to adapt to the NHL, but with what he’s showing so far, it’s quite the opposite: the NHL needs to adapt to Lane Hutson . We’ve already seen him many times do his feints and create space, only to not find a teammate to pass to, or find a player who thought he had lost the puck and basically ends up in his legs rather than in space. We can see it in the sequence against Seattle above. After this superb offensive push, he stops at the blue line and scans the ice, but there are absolutely no passing options available, at least not one that creates an opportunity.
A vain end-to-end push from Lane Hutson.
And don’t forget that this sequence is on the power play. There is no reason for CH to be three against four in the offensive zone at this time. Hutson finally decides to cut towards the net himself to get a good chance to score. A successful play, but which could have been much more dangerous if his teammates had followed his rhythm and positioned themselves in the space he had created by attracting the attention of the defense.
This is why I say that it is the NHL that must adapt to Lane Hutson and not the opposite. The day his teammates understand how to fill the voids left by a defense destabilized by Hutson, that’s when he will be able to show the extent of his potential.
