Let’s talk MotoGP: But where is Maverick Vinales?

We thought he was back. Maverick Vinales, a key rider in the MotoGP landscape, has been absent for a few rounds. While he took his first victory since 2021 this season, he has only been falling in the standings, far from the leaders. But what is going on? Is it a problem with the bike? An analysis is necessary.

The descent into hell

We are rightly talking about the difficult period that Pedro Acosta is going through at GasGas Tech3. But that is nothing compared to Maverick Vinales who is sinking, nothing less. To begin, let’s analyze its recent results.

Since his impressive start to the season and, more specifically, his two victories in Austin, he has not been back on the podium in a Sunday race. However, he has only had one retirement, in Portugal – before the United States – where he was let down by his mechanics as he was heading towards another top 3. It’s worse since Germany, because he didn’t even make it into the top 5 anymore.. In recent history, it is rather rare to see a driver so strong at the start of the year plummet like this. Maverick is still fifth in the world championship but at this rate, it will not last, as we will see in the last part. As you will have understood, the situation is serious.

Valid reasons, but…

In short, “Top Gun” complains about the braking of the Aprilia RS-GP. This is a more than valid reason, given the gap that now separates the Aprilia from the Ducati. This parameter is verified, because it is clear that the Borgo Panigale firm has made a leap forward since the Qatar Grand Prix.
The Desmosedici GP24 is untouchable, basically. He also mentions the progress of the KTM RC16, but this time, it is much less evident on the track.

The real thorn in Vinales’ side is called Aleix Espargaro. How can we explain that at 35 years old, less than half a season from retirement, the veteran is better. At the start of the season, he was far behind, so far that we legitimately thought his year was going to be longer than expected. There was that performance in Qatar, then in Barcelona, ​​okay, but also that serious injury in Assen that led him to miss two Grands Prix! And here he is back on the podium, at the Red Bull Ring, on a track that has never suited him, while his teammate only finished the Sprint in 11th position. – first time he had scored points in the short format since the beginning of the year –, and the main race in 7th place. There is reason to ask questions.

The Aprilia RS-GP is not progressing as fast as the Ducati, that’s a fact. But an aging Aleix still manages to get the most out of it. And then, on circuits that put the brakes under less strain, like Silverstone, Maverick has not been more visible; even though it is one of his best tracks!

The other two Aprilia riders, Miguel Oliveira and Raul Fernandez, now have RS-GP24s – since Silverstone for the Spaniard. It’s not brilliant on their side, granted,
But Oliveira still did better than “Top Gun” at the Sachsenring and in Catalonia.

What do you think?

For me, this is more of a Maverick Vinales issue than his mount issue.. This is nothing new: he has never been able to maintain a very good level over an entire season, but has always been able to stand out for a few rounds. There is nothing surprising in this, and
I had also predicted this situation in an article that I invite you to read by clicking here.

Aprilia will part ways with him at the end of the year in favor of Marco Bezzecchi, and I think they are not losing out, quite the contrary. Clearly, it is a completely logical decision that reality confirms from race to race.

The question that needs to be asked is:
How far will he slide in the rankings?
Let’s have a little prediction session. Personally, I think that Brad Binder, on the upward slope, will pass him. This would probably have been the case in England if the South African had not suffered a mechanical problem at the start. Then, I see Pedro Acosta stealing sixth place from him. Although he is in the delicate period of his long apprenticeship, I have confidence in him. Then, behind, comes the unshakeable Aleix Espargaro. Before the start of the season, I had seen him behind Vinales in the final standings but that could well change. I think the two will finish neck and neck, with a slight advantage for Vinales at the end.

And you, where do you expect Maverick Vinales on the evening of the Valencia GP? Tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport