The financial markets ended the year 2024 positively but in mixed order: strong dominance of large American stocks compared to European, Japanese or emerging stocks, decline in French stocks, good performance in interest rate products. “Will these trends continue in the contrasting environment that 2025 has in store for us?” asks Vincent Guenzi, director of investment strategy at Cholet Dupont Oudart.
If the current economic context appears relatively stable and favorable to financial markets, it can easily be disrupted by numerous pitfalls, particularly after the inauguration of Donald Trump.
“What are the risks weighing on the economy and the financial markets? Conversely, what good surprises can we expect? The basic scenario for the year 2025 remains positive: moderate growth, slight disinflation, pragmatic American policy, rebound in Germany and Europe, even in China, developments in the financial markets will nevertheless depend on the risks that we are going to discuss and which may also appear temporarily, leading to volatility”, indicates Vincent Guenzi.
In the shorter term, the rise in American rates could continue towards 5% and calm the enthusiasm of Wall Street before their possible decline revives the appetite for stocks. In Europe, the direction of the indices seems to be improving but their rebound will remain precarious until real catalysts appear, probably during the 1st quarter.
“The current context therefore encourages us to remain confident on American equities, whose high valuations can nevertheless cause small declines, to remain cautious on French equities and more constructive on other European equities. Overall, we still prefer to wait for better opportunities to increase the weight of stocks in portfolios But it seems wise to us to start reinforcing the weight of European stocks in underinvested portfolios. Vincent Guenzi.
Swiss
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